BMIE Market 97338

Polk County, Oregon · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,419 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±829 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,815 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±380 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,045 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,271 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,068 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,226 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$424,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,807 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	124.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 97338
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-3.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+3.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-3.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 29–38) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 97338. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Oregon and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 349, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.6	75	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.2	61	35%	+21.4
Market Momentum Score	30.5	30	25%	+7.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,419	84	40%	+33.6
Median household income (ACS)	78,858	61	40%	+24.3
Households (ACS)	8,815	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	3.5	49	35%	+17.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.8	61	25%	+15.3
Population (ACS)	23,419	84	20%	+16.8
Median household income (ACS)	78,858	61	20%	+12.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-3.2	24	50%	+12.1
10-year restaurant growth	3.5	49	30%	+14.6
20-year restaurant growth	-3.2	19	20%	+3.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (84)

By cuisine

Coffee 10 · Mexican 10 · American 8 · Asian 6 · Latin American (other) 6 · Pizza 6 · Japanese 5 · Sushi 5 · Burgers 4 · Bakery 3 · Chinese 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Thai 3 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · BBQ 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Indian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 42 · Bar 17 · Winery / distillery / taproom 14 · Quick service 10 · Café 9 · Casual dining 9 · Coffee shop 8 · Food truck 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abby's Legendary Pizza Abby's Legendary Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	174 W Ellendale Ave	open
Amalie Robert Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom		13531 Bursell Rd	open
Andante Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		3855 Morris Rd	open
Anton's Acres LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		4065 Perrydale Rd	open
Bangkok Street	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	608 Main St	open
BeckenRidge Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		300 Reuben Boise Rd	open
Benedetto Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		14020 Orchard Knob Rd	open
Black Rock Barbacoa	Food truck · Catering	BBQ	3907 Kings Valley Hwy	open
Bobablastic Bobablastic	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	995 Main St	open
Brooks & Terry's Espresso	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	100 W Ellendale Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	434 E Ellendale Ave	open
Capricorn Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1635 SE Miller Ave	open
Carnitas Delicias	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	995 Main St	open
Chen's Family Dish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	184 SE Washington St	open
Classic Movie Cafe & Concessions	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Coffee	124 SW Walnut Ave	open
Corby’s Public House	Bar		962 Main St	open
Court Street Neighborhood Grill	Casual dining · Bar		186 SW Court St	open
Courtyard Coffee House	Café	Coffee	140 SE Mill St	open
Cynthian Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		13945 OR-22	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	586 SE Jefferson St	open
Dallas, OR (Dallas) Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	515 S.E. Jefferson	open
Dandy Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	888 SE Monmouth Cutoff Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	772 Main St	open
Dreamies Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	141 SW Court St	open
Dutch Bros	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1233 SE Jefferson St	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	515 SE Jefferson St	open
Dutch Bros. Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	820 E Ellendale	open
El Pique Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	289 E Ellendale Ave	open
Emr, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		141 SW Washington St	open
Figaro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	244 Main St	open
Forest Pass Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	735 SW Maple St	open
Gather Food Park	Food truck		995 Main St	open
Havlin Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		5000 Perrydale Rd	open
Hong Kong Restaurant & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	325 Main St	open
Illahe Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		3275 Ballard Rd	open
Ixtapa Mexican Restaurant Ixtapa Florence Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1320 SW Fairview Ave	open
Johar International	Restaurant (service type not stated)		430 Main St	open
Karma Coffee Bar and Bakery	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1062 Main St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	120 East Ellendale Ave	open
La Herradura Mexican Food	Quick service	Mexican · Latin American (other)	994 S Main St	open
Limeberry	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	109 E Ellendale Ave	open
Love Love Teriyaki and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	433 S Main St	open
Mama Gordita's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	156 SE Mill St	open
Masala Bites Indian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	413 S Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	227 E Ellendale Ave	open
Mezcal Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining		788 SW Birch St	open
Miramar Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	119 E Ellendale Ave	open
Muchas Gracias Mexican Food Muchas Gracias Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican	365 E Ellendale Ave	open
Murphy's Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	288 E Ellendale Ave	open
Namaste Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5600 Van Well Rd	open
New Morning Bakery Dallas	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Breakfast	788 S Main St	open
North Dallas Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		170 E Ellendale Ave	open
Open Claim - Vineyard House	Winery / distillery / taproom · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Juice / smoothies	2795 Ballard Rd	open
Osaka Sushi and Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Chinese	962 Main St	open
Pad Thai King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	995 Main St	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	244 East Ellendale Avenue	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Plantation Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	820 E Ellendale	open
Pointer Farms Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	17600 Gardner Rd	open
Pressed Coffee Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		788 Main St	open
Quiznos	Other	Sandwiches	244 E Ellendale Ave	open
Retro Arc and Billiards Club	Bar		1254 SW Fairview Ave	open
Salt Creek Cider House	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		14500 Salt Creek Rd	open
San Antonio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	365 E Ellendale Ave	open
Sea Plum Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		586 SE Jefferson St	open
Spoon N Folks Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Japanese · Sushi · Asian	184 SE Washington St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	138 W Ellendale Ave	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	242 Main Street	open
Sushi J Restaurant & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	413 Main St	open
Sweeny's Pub	Bar		117 E Ellendale Ave	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	200 W. Ellendale Ave.	open
Taco Time	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	365 E Ellendale Ave	open
Tater's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	683 SE Jefferson St	open
The Garden Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	904 Main St Ste B	open
Ting Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		325 Main St	open
Tony's Place Tony's Place -romsey-	Bar · Casual dining		127 SW Court St	open
Two Wolves Taproom	Bar · Casual dining		171 SW Court St	open
Ugo's Pizza Parlor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	967 Main St	open
US Cellar Systems	Winery / distillery / taproom		17540 Brown Rd	open
Van Duzer Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		11975 Smithfield Rd	open
Washington Street Steakhouse & Pub	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	141 SW Washington St #3401	open
West Valley Taphouse	Casual dining · Bar		957 Main St	open
Wetzel Estate	Winery / distillery / taproom		17485 Highway 22	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	138 W Ellendale Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	31	26	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	32	26	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1996	29	23	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	26	24	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	24	20	9	11	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	30	24	10	13	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	32	27	11	15	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	31	28	13	14	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	30	26	12	13	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	35	31	15	14	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	39	34	15	15	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	38	33	15	14	4	3	NAICS2002
2006	39	34	13	17	4	3	NAICS2002
2007	39	34	16	14	4	3	NAICS2002
2008	31	26	12	10	4	3	NAICS2007
2009	32	26	14	10	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	35	27	14	11	2	5	NAICS2007
2011	35	29	15	12	2	3	NAICS2007
2012	38	32	16	13	3	4	NAICS2012
2013	34	29	14	11	4	3	NAICS2012
2014	36	31	16	12	3	3	NAICS2012
2015	31	30	15	12	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	33	31	17	11	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	33	30	16	12	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	34	31	15	13	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	40	37	22	12	3	3	NAICS2017
2020	37	33	19	11	3	4	NAICS2017
2021	37	32	14	15	3	5	NAICS2017
2022	36	31	16	11	4	4	NAICS2022
2023	37	30	14	13	3	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 97338. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.