BMIE Market 97530

Jackson County, Oregon · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,860 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,114 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,798 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±373 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,916 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,516 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$89,239 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,548 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,629 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$617,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±83,832 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	464.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 97530
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-21.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.72) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 97530. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.72, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Oregon and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 349, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.4	43	35%	+15.2
Market Momentum Score	13.7	14	25%	+3.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,860	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	89,239	73	40%	+29.0
Households (ACS)	3,798	70	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	35%	+3.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.9	46	25%	+11.5
Population (ACS)	8,860	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	89,239	73	20%	+14.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	30%	+3.1
20-year restaurant growth	-11.8	16	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (63)

By cuisine

American 7 · Bakery 7 · Coffee 7 · BBQ 3 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Spanish / tapas 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 25 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 17 · Bakery 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Dessert 4 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anchor Valley Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		150 S Oregon St	open
Apple Outlaw Taproom	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Spanish / tapas · Pizza	15090 OR-238	open
Back Porch Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	605 N 5th St	open
Beerworks Jacksonville	Bar		150 S Oregon St	open
Bella Union Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		170 W California St #9237	open
C St Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	230 E C St	open
Cerberus Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	310 E California St	open
Churro Rush	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert · Breakfast	130 W California St	open
Ck Coffee Co., Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		545 N 5th St	open
Code 3 Coffee & Snacks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	7386 OR-238	open
Cowhorn Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	130 N 5th St	open
Cowhorn Vineyard & Garden	Winery / distillery / taproom		1665 Eastside Rd	open
Cowhorn Vineyard and Garden	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1665 Eastside Rd	open
Cricket Hill Vineyard	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2131 Little Applegate Rd	open
Cricket Hill Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2131 Little Applegate Rd	open
Crooked Barn Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		14430 OR-238	open
Crystal Lake Wines by Adrienne King	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		1000 Upper Applegate Rd	open
Curly Top Bake Shop	Bakery	Bakery	15095 Highway 238	open
Daisy Creek Vineyard LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		675 Shafer Ln	open
Devitt Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		11412 Highway 238	open
Farm and Flour	Bakery	Bakery	17 Sterling Creek Rd	open
Frau Kemmling Schoolhaus Brewhaus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	525 East E Street	open
Gogi's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	235 W Main St	open
GoodBean Jacksonville	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	165 S Oregon St	open
Independence Farm, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15090 Highway 238	open
J'Ville Tavern	Bar	American	125 W California St	open
Jackass Freight Co. Public House	Bar · Casual dining		150 S Oregon St Suite B	open
Jacksonville Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		9730 OR-238	open
John Michael Champagne Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		1425 Humbug Creek Rd	open
La Fiesta Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	150 S Oregon St	open
Las Palmas Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	210 E California St	open
LongSword Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		8555 OR-238	open
McKee Bridge Restaurant	Casual dining	American	9045 Upper Applegate Rd	open
Moulton Family Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		21 Thompson Creek Rd	open
Mrs. Cards Cake's	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	345 Pair A Dice Ranch Rd	open
Mustard Seed Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	130 N 5th St	open
Pavo Real Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		540 Tumbleweed Trail	open
Pony Espresso Pony Espresso	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	545 N 5th St	open
Quady North	Winery / distillery / taproom		255 E California St	open
Quady North Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		9800 Highway 238	open
Red Lily Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		W California St	open
Red Lily Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		11777 Highway 238	open
Remotion Wine, The Orth House Inn	Winery / distillery / taproom		105 W Main St	open
Rise Up Artisan Bread	Bakery	Bakery	3000 Yale Creek Rd	open
Smitten Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		14319 Highway 238	open
South Stage Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		125 S 3rd St	open
Steelhead Run Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		14111 OR-238	open
Stim Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	310 E California St	open
Sun Flour Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7382 Highway 238	open
SuraTini	Bar	Spanish / tapas · Thai	215 W California St	open
Sweets and Eats	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Bakery	Coffee · Sandwiches · Bakery	181 Upper Applegate Rd	open
T7Gr	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6777 Sterling Creek Rd	open
Table Rock City Taphouse and Spirits	Bar		150 S Oregon St	open
The Candy Shoppe	Dessert		235 E California St	open
The Gold Room Jacksonville	Bar		175 E California St	open
The Lindsay Lodge & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15100 Highway 238	open
The Pit Stop Espresso	Coffee shop	Coffee · Hot dogs · BBQ	7386 OR-238	open
Umi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	100 E California St	open
Valley View Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1000 Upper Applegate Rd	open
Valley View Winery Tasting Rm	Winery / distillery / taproom		120 E California St	open
Violets & Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	150 S Oregon St	open
Wells Land Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Wild Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4550 Little Applegate Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	19	16	9	3	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	7	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	19	17	8	6	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	15	10	2	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	19	17	13	1	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	19	17	12	1	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	13	—	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	17	15	12	—	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	20	17	14	—	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	17	14	12	—	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	17	15	11	—	4	2	NAICS2007
2010	18	16	13	—	3	2	NAICS2007
2011	20	17	13	1	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	22	19	16	1	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	24	21	16	2	3	3	NAICS2012
2014	23	21	14	3	4	2	NAICS2012
2015	24	22	14	5	3	2	NAICS2012
2016	22	20	15	3	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	22	20	15	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	18	15	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	20	16	—	3	4	NAICS2017
2020	24	20	15	—	4	4	NAICS2017
2021	24	18	13	—	5	5	NAICS2017
2022	20	15	10	—	5	4	NAICS2022
2023	22	15	12	—	3	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 97530. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.