BMIE Market 98040

King County, Washington · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,307 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±32 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,068 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±331 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	22,699 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,930 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$219,069 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,476 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,502 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±191 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$2,000,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	38 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 98040
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+31.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	36 (range 31–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 98040. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Washington and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 484, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.1	91	40%	+36.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.7	68	35%	+23.7
Market Momentum Score	65.2	65	25%	+16.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,307	85	40%	+34.2
Median household income (ACS)	219,069	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	10,068	86	20%	+17.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	35%	+17.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	25,307	85	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	219,069	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.6	79	50%	+39.6
10-year restaurant growth	5.6	50	30%	+15.1
20-year restaurant growth	31.0	53	20%	+10.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (69)

By cuisine

Asian 10 · Coffee 7 · Bakery 6 · Pizza 6 · American 5 · Dessert 4 · Japanese 4 · Mexican 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Burgers 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Italian 3 · Thai 3 · French 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · Indian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Seafood 2 · Vietnamese 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 44 · Bar 10 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Food truck 4 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ali's Foodies Halal Pakistani and indian food truck	Food truck	Indian · Halal / kosher	7833 SE 28th St	open
Allister	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7650 SE 27th St	open
Anise Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai	7691 SE 27th St	open
Aroi Desu	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Thai · American	3039 78th Ave SE	open
ASA Mercer Island	Bar · Coffee shop	Coffee	2690 76th Ave SE #101	open
Baitong on Wheels - Mercer Island	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2900 78th Ave SE	open
Baitong on Wheels - Mercer Island	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2900 78th Ave SE	open
Barrels Wine Bar	Bar		7605 SE 27th St	open
BeckyBakes.Seattle	Bakery	Bakery	7650 SE 27th St	open
Bennett's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7650 SE 27th St	open
Cepae corner on Mercer Island	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3020 78th Ave SE	open
ChaCha Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7858 SE 28th St	open
Dalhousie Square, mercer island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	7505 SE 27th St	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	7808 SE 28th St	open
El Sombrero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	8451 SE 68th St	open
EverSweets	Dessert	Dessert	Mercer island - 3650 93rd	open
FaveKitchens - Mercer Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2630 77th Ave SE Ste 112	open
Georgio's Subs	Other	Sandwiches	8415 SE 68th St Ste 112	open
Gourmet Teriyaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	7671 SE 27th St	open
Hap's Burgers and Taps	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	2411 76th Ave SE	open
Happy Boil Seafood House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Chinese	2885 78th Ave SE Ste 101	open
Homegrown Homegrown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Healthy / salads / bowls	3016 78th Ave SE	open
I Love Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7605 Se 27th St Ste 112	open
ISLAND BROILER bar-grill-noodlehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Burgers	2707 78th Ave SE	open
Island Crust Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Vegetarian · Pizza · Halal / kosher	7525 SE 24th St 7525	open
Island's Pho and Teriyaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	3033 78th Ave SE	open
Islander	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2441 76th Ave SE Ste 150	open
Just Poke Mercer Island Just Poké	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Seafood · Healthy / salads / bowls	2758 78th Ave SE	open
L'Experience Paris L'Experience Paris	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	3020 78th Ave SE	open
La Fête Pâtisserie Française	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · French · Dessert	7605 SE 27th St	open
Las Bugambilias	Food truck		7655 Sunset Hwy	open
Local Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · American	3605 80th Ave SE	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2807 78th St Se	open
Menchie's	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7785 Sunset Hwy Ste 116	open
Mioposto Mioposto	Bar	Pizza · Italian	2601 76th Ave SE	open
Miriam's Bakeshop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	2711 76th Ave SE	open
Mo's Pizza & Wine Dive	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian		open
Oh! Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	8451 SE 68th St	open
Old Timer & Cook	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2885 78th Ave SE	open
Pagliacci Pizza Pagliacci	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3077 78th Ave SE	open
Phobulous	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	3033 78th Ave SE	open
Pogacha Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2707 78th Ave SE	open
Pon Proem Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	3039 78th Ave SE	open
Pugel	Bar		4029 91st Ave SE	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	7650 SE 27th St	open
Riviera Maya Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	8451 SE 68th St #101	open
Roanoke Inn	Bar · Casual dining		1825 72nd Ave SE	open
Roberto's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7605 SE 27th St	open
Sahara Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8425 SE 68th St #104	open
Sano Bar Llc Sano Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	7605 Se 27th St Ste 111	open
Shawn's Cafe and Bakery	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	7420 SE 24th St	open
Sj Restaurant Group, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2717 78th Ave SE	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	7695 SE 27th St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8415 SE 68th St	open
Stopsky's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3016 78th Ave SE	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7679 SE 27th Suite 9	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8415 SE 68th St., Suite 112	open
Sushi Joa Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2717 78th Ave SE	open
The Crawlspace Gastropub	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Asian	3041 78th Ave SE	open
Toshi's Teriyaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	8425 SE 68th St	open
Tsss	Bar		4319 91st Ave SE	open
Tully's Coffee Drive Thru	Coffee shop	Coffee	3077 78th Ave SE	open
Tuscan Stone Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2885 78th Ave SE	open
Vivienne's Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	2441 76th Ave SE	open
World Wrapps N W Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3023 80th Ave SE	open
Yuzen Japanese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	8451 SE 68th St	open
Convivial Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3020 78th Ave SE	closed
Island Treats	Dessert	Dessert	7605 Se 27th St Ste 106	closed
Mercer Island Ice Cream & Dessert	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2900 78th Ave SE	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	28	27	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	29	28	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	30	29	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	33	33	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	33	26	13	9	4	1	NAICS1997
1999	31	26	14	6	6	—	NAICS1997
2000	30	25	12	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2001	37	31	13	11	7	1	NAICS1997
2002	36	29	15	8	6	1	NAICS1997
2003	34	29	15	9	5	—	NAICS2002
2004	38	31	18	6	7	1	NAICS2002
2005	39	32	17	7	8	1	NAICS2002
2006	41	35	15	11	9	1	NAICS2002
2007	39	33	12	13	8	1	NAICS2002
2008	38	33	14	10	9	—	NAICS2007
2009	37	33	13	11	9	—	NAICS2007
2010	36	31	13	10	8	—	NAICS2007
2011	39	34	14	10	10	—	NAICS2007
2012	40	36	17	9	10	—	NAICS2012
2013	39	36	16	9	11	—	NAICS2012
2014	41	38	17	10	11	—	NAICS2012
2015	43	36	15	11	10	1	NAICS2012
2016	37	33	14	10	9	—	NAICS2012
2017	36	33	16	9	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	35	31	15	10	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	37	32	15	10	7	—	NAICS2017
2020	41	38	20	10	8	—	NAICS2017
2021	38	36	15	12	9	—	NAICS2017
2022	37	35	17	11	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	41	38	19	11	8	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 98040. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
98118	2.3 mi	84	2023
98144	3.2 mi	81	2023
98006	3.8 mi	79	2023
98004	3.9 mi	190	2023
98108	4.0 mi	67	2023
98056	4.1 mi	54	2023
98122	4.3 mi	203	2023
98005	4.5 mi	56	2023
98178	4.6 mi	12	2023
98039	4.9 mi	1	2014

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.