BMIE Market 98232

Skagit County, Washington · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,054 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±696 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,576 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,920 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,792 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,559 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,591 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,640 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±242 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$782,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90,193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	54.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 98232
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+85.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+160.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 4–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 98232. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Washington and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 484, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.7	68	40%	+27.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.6	58	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	78.8	79	25%	+19.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,054	57	40%	+22.8
Median household income (ACS)	104,559	84	40%	+33.5
Households (ACS)	1,576	57	20%	+11.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	35%	+24.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	32.1	18	25%	+4.5
Population (ACS)	4,054	57	20%	+11.4
Median household income (ACS)	104,559	84	20%	+16.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	85.7	94	50%	+47.1
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	30%	+21.3
20-year restaurant growth	30	52	20%	+10.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 5 · Seafood 3 · Bakery 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Café 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Blue Heron Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4923 Seacliff Ln	open
Bow Kitchen Hub	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	14969 W Bow Hill Rd	open
BowEdison Fine Food and Drink	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5545 Chuckanut Dr	open
Breadfarm	Bakery	Bakery	5766 Cains Ct	open
Chuckanut Manor Seafood & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	3056 Chuckanut Dr	open
cob + cork	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		5545 Chuckanut Dr	open
Cruisin Coffee Bow Hill Cruisin Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	18494 Bow Hill Rd	open
Edison Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5829 Cains Ct	open
Ellison Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5797 Main St	open
Farm To Market Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5507 Chuckanut Dr	open
Gothberg Farms	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15203 Sunset Rd	open
Longhorn Saloon	Casual dining · Bar	American	5754 Cains Ct	open
Mariposa Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	14003 Gilmore Ave	open
Otter Beans Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9029 Chuckanut Dr	open
Persimmon Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Vegetarian	3533 Chuckanut Dr	open
Pizza Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5545 Chuckanut Dr	open
Rhody Cafe	Café	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American · Coffee	5521 Chuckanut Dr	open
Sisters Espresso	Coffee shop	Coffee	9029 Chuckanut Dr	open
Slough Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	5766 Cains Ct	open
Terramar Brewstillery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		5712 Gilkey Ave	open
The Corner Pub	Bar · Casual dining		14565 Allen West Rd	open
The Edison Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	5797 Main St	open
The Oyster Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Steakhouse · BBQ · Seafood · Healthy / salads / bowls	2578 Chuckanut Dr	open
The Oyster Creek Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2190 Chuckanut Dr	open
The Oyster Shuckers - Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mexican	17026 Allen West Rd	open
Tweets	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	5800 Cains Ct	open
Japanese Gardens Coffeehouse	Coffee shop	Coffee	3533 Chuckanut Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	5	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	10	8	1	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	8	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	8	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	9	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	9	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	8	—	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	8	6	—	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	11	7	6	—	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	10	5	5	—	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	14	9	6	1	2	4	NAICS2002
2008	12	7	5	—	2	4	NAICS2007
2009	11	7	4	—	3	3	NAICS2007
2010	11	8	5	—	3	2	NAICS2007
2011	13	10	5	1	4	2	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	6	1	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	10	6	1	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	5	1	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	7	6	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	12	6	—	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	9	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 98232. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.