BMIE Market 98236

Island County, Washington · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,199 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±891 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,910 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±300 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,635 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,430 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$94,362 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,925 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$668,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,558 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 98236
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-26.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 8–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 98236. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Washington and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 484, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.5	70	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48.2	48	35%	+16.9
Market Momentum Score	14.1	14	25%	+3.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,199	66	40%	+26.4
Median household income (ACS)	94,362	77	40%	+30.8
Households (ACS)	2,910	67	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	35%	+6.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.3	52	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	7,199	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	94,362	77	20%	+15.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-26.7	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	30%	+5.8
20-year restaurant growth	-8.3	17	20%	+3.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

American 2 · Bakery 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Dessert 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bailey's Corner Store Corner Store	Casual dining · Bar	American	7695 Cultus Bay Rd	open
Build-A-Brät	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	German / Eastern European · Juice / smoothies	9000 State Route 525	open
Cultus Bay Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		8311 Sandy Hook Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	6330 Storkson Rd 6330 Storkson Rd	open
Feral Slice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Bakery	Bakery	6305 Storkson Dr	open
Hong kong Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	9324 E State Highway 525	open
Island Nosh	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Noodles / ramen / pho · American	8898 WA-525	open
Ogres brewing	Brewery / taproom		7693 Cultus Bay Rd	open
Patron	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11042 WA-525 #102	open
Pickles Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	11042 WA-525	open
Skein & Tipple	Bar		8912 WA-525	open
The Shrimp Shack at Cozy's	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	8872 State Route 525	open
Thirsty Crab Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		9000 WA-525	open
Whidbey Island Bagel Factory	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	11042 WA-525	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	17	17	5	4	8	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	6	3	5	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	5	2	5	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	6	2	5	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	5	2	5	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	4	2	6	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	4	2	6	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	4	2	6	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	15	5	2	8	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	12	3	3	6	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	17	6	3	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	6	3	6	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	16	7	3	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	16	6	4	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	12	5	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	12	4	3	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	11	3	3	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 98236. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.