BMIE Market 98274

Skagit County, Washington · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,860 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,367 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,159 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±422 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,613 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,377 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$96,177 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,894 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,869 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$547,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,718 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	143.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 98274
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 7–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 98274. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Washington and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 484, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.4	79	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78	78	35%	+27.3
Market Momentum Score	49.5	49	25%	+12.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,860	80	40%	+32.2
Median household income (ACS)	96,177	78	40%	+31.3
Households (ACS)	7,159	80	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.3	91	25%	+22.7
Population (ACS)	18,860	80	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	96,177	78	20%	+15.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	400	98	20%	+19.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · American 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Bar 4 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2323 E Section St Ste 100	open
Bertelsen Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		20598 Starbird Rd	open
Big Lake Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		18247 WA-9	open
Big Lake Grocery	Quick service		16824 LAKE VIEW BLVD	open
Bob's Burgers & Brew Bob's Burgers and Brew "Lynden"	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American		open
Coffee Doctor	Coffee shop	Coffee	1400 E Kincaid St	open
Coffee Shack	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	21049 Cedardale Rd	open
Eaglemont Golf Course & Fireweed Terrace Restaurant & Lounge	Bar	American	S Waugh Rd	open
Fireweed Terrace at Eaglemont	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4800 Eaglemont Dr	open
Hot Stuff Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2829 Cedardale Rd	open
Jorge's Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1725 E Blackburn Rd	open
Kiwanis Salmon Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1717 S 13th St	open
Muddy Waters Coffee & Catering	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	17523 WA-9	open
My Back Porch Cigar Lounge	Bar		3528 E Broadway St	open
Sahara Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2323 E Section St Unit 150	open
Sahara Pizza Sahara Pizza Napavine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2323 E Section St #150	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2601 E Division St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches		open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2323 E Section St	open
Umi Teriyaki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2323 E Section St #110	open
Whidbey Coffee Whidbey Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1415 E Kincaid St	open
Whidbey Island Bagel Factory Manhattan Bagel	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	102 S 10th St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	2	1	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	8	2	4	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	1	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	1	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	2	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	2	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	12	3	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	10	—	4	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 98274. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.