BMIE Market 01440

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,276 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,007 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±346 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,347 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,179 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,440 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,109 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±51 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$303,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,709 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	34 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01440
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-2.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+30.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 29–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01440. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.9	67	40%	+26.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.1	45	35%	+15.8
Market Momentum Score	24.8	25	25%	+6.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,276	82	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	67,440	43	40%	+17.2
Households (ACS)	9,007	84	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-2.9	22	35%	+7.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.0	49	25%	+12.3
Population (ACS)	21,276	82	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	67,440	43	20%	+8.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15	15	50%	+7.7
10-year restaurant growth	-2.9	22	30%	+6.6
20-year restaurant growth	30.8	52	20%	+10.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (61)

By cuisine

American 15 · Coffee 9 · Dessert 7 · Pizza 7 · Italian 6 · Asian 5 · Bakery 5 · Burgers 5 · Chinese 4 · Mexican 4 · Breakfast 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Seafood 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Quick service 11 · Bakery 10 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 9 · Dessert 8 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1772 House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		154 Eaton St	open
99 Restaurants 99 Restaurants	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	299 Timpany Blvd	open
Blue Moon Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	102 Main St	open
Bra'dlilly Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		95 West St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	9 Crawford St	open
Cafe Edesia	Café	Coffee	486 Chestnut St Ste 2	open
Caring Confections	Bakery	Bakery	285 Leo Dr	open
Chair City Diner	Casual dining	American	53 Lynde St	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	346 Timpany Blvd	open
Coffee & Cream	Coffee shop · Dessert	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	7 Connors St	open
Creative Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	65 High St	open
Dk Brothers Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		360 Timpany Blvd	open
Duguay's Fried Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Chicken / wings · American	632 Parker St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	221 Main St LukeOil Gas-Convenience	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	4 Oak St Shell Gas Station	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	17 Pearson St, Mr. Mikes Sunoco	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	264 Timpany Blvd Shell Gas Station	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	372 Timpany Blvd	open
Four Season Chinese Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	19 Union Square	open
Friendly's Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	18 Pearson Blvd	open
Gabby's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	173 Pearson Blvd	open
Garden Pizza and Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Seafood · Italian	24 Parker St	open
Jade Ii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	19 Union Sq	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	320 West Broadway Unit 3	open
Kenny's House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian · American	491 Chestnut St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	8 Pearson Blvd	open
Kneadful Treats	Bakery	Bakery	877 Timpany Blvd	open
Lila's Porch Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	35 Crawford St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	223 Timpany Blvd	open
Moon Hill Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		74 Parker St	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	18 Pearson Blvd	open
Papa Gino's Papa Gino's	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	326 Timpany Blvd	open
Paramount Cafe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	46 Main St	open
Parker House Of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	17 Pleasant St	open
Patriots Pizza & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	52 Pearson Blvd	open
Pleasant House Of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	68 Main St	open
Priscilla Candy Shop	Dessert	Dessert	4 Main St	open
Saint Paul Lodge	Bar		42 Central St	open
Sawa Asian Cuisine & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	242 W Broadway	open
SawaAsian Cuisine & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	360 Timpany Blvd	open
Scott's Firehouse Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Healthy / salads / bowls · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	66 Main St	open
Shane's Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Burgers · American	504 Chestnut St	open
Sorrento's Brick Oven Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	487 Chestnut St	open
South Gardner "Hotel" - Pub & Bar	Bar · Casual dining		8 E Broadway	open
Southside Grille & Margarita Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	242 W Broadway	open
Southwest Fresh Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		242 W Broadway	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	308 West Broadway 1	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	677 Timpany Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	30 Pearson Boulevard	open
Taco Rey Coliman	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7 Pleasant St	open
The Colonial Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	625 Betty Spring Rd	open
The G-Vegas Cafe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	280 Central Street	open
The Hen House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	95 West St	open
The Ramblin' Rose	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	543 W Broadway	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	28 Pearson Blvd	open
West Broadway Pizza and Seafood - Gardner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood · Pizza	15 W Broadway	open
Williams Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	184 Pearson Blvd	open
Windsor Cafe Inc	Bar		560 W Broadway	open
Yen Yen Chinese Restaurant	Bar	Chinese · Asian	42 Pearson Blvd	open
Zoe's On The Green	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		154 Eaton St	open
Shooters Billiards	Bar		29 Pleasant St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	32	26	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	30	25	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	31	26	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	36	30	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	38	31	14	15	2	5	NAICS1997
1999	37	29	13	13	3	6	NAICS1997
2000	37	29	15	12	2	6	NAICS1997
2001	37	30	16	12	2	5	NAICS1997
2002	34	26	14	10	2	5	NAICS1997
2003	33	26	10	13	3	4	NAICS2002
2004	39	31	13	17	1	4	NAICS2002
2005	36	28	10	16	2	4	NAICS2002
2006	35	29	11	15	3	3	NAICS2002
2007	42	36	15	13	8	3	NAICS2002
2008	43	36	14	14	8	3	NAICS2007
2009	39	34	12	14	8	2	NAICS2007
2010	39	35	13	15	7	1	NAICS2007
2011	40	36	12	17	7	1	NAICS2007
2012	41	36	13	17	6	1	NAICS2012
2013	39	35	11	18	6	1	NAICS2012
2014	38	33	10	17	6	1	NAICS2012
2015	39	33	9	17	7	1	NAICS2012
2016	42	37	10	20	7	1	NAICS2012
2017	41	37	13	17	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	44	40	15	18	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	40	36	11	17	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	37	33	11	15	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	38	34	12	15	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	38	32	13	13	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	40	34	13	14	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01440. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01438	3.2 mi	2	2016
01473	4.7 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.