BMIE Market 01518

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,598 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±418 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,196 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±188 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,974 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,326 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$136,111 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,087 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$767 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$452,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,928 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01518
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	37.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01518. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.0	68	40%	+27.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	38.9	39	35%	+13.6
Market Momentum Score	17.2	17	25%	+4.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,598	50	40%	+19.9
Median household income (ACS)	136,111	94	40%	+37.7
Households (ACS)	1,196	53	20%	+10.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	38.5	14	25%	+3.5
Population (ACS)	2,598	50	20%	+9.9
Median household income (ACS)	136,111	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-23.1	12	50%	+6.0
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 6 · Italian 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 6 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Altruist Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		559 Main St	open
Angelina's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	538 Main St	open
Avellino	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian · American	502 Main St	open
Baba Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	453 Main St	open
Bullard Tavern within Old Sturbridge Village Museum	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1 Sturbridge Village Road	open
Churchill's Village Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	450 Main St	open
Cornerstone Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · American		open
Deep Roots Distillery USA	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		559 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	469 Main St	open
Flex Men	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1412 Bassell Avenue	open
Kaizen Sushi Bar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	479 Main St	open
Old Village Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Brookfield Rd	open
Pioneer	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		195 Arnold Rd	open
Rapscallion Disc Golf	Brewery / taproom · Bar		195 Arnold Rd	open
Rapscallion Pub Rapscallion	Bar · Casual dining		3 Arnold Rd	open
Rovezzi's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2 School St	open
Sturbridge Candy & Gift Shoppe	Dessert		500 Main St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	559 Main St #208	open
The Copper Stallion	Casual dining · Bar		538 Main St	open
The Little Rest Stop	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	25 Brookfield Rd	open
The Zahr Bar	Bar · Casual dining		217 Cedar St	open
Village Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	487 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01518. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01566	1.8 mi	34	2023
01010	4.9 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.