BMIE Market 01944

Essex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,403 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,156 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±179 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,136 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,394 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$206,389 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,757 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,811 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±443 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$942,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,571 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01944
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 6–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	19 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01944. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.7	77	40%	+30.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.8	48	35%	+16.7
Market Momentum Score	19.0	19	25%	+4.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,403	62	40%	+24.7
Median household income (ACS)	206,389	99	40%	+39.6
Households (ACS)	2,156	62	20%	+12.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.5	41	25%	+10.3
Population (ACS)	5,403	62	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	206,389	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 19 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-28.6	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	25	49	20%	+9.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
35 Beach	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	35 Beach St	open
7 Central Hospitality Ll	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 Central St	open
Allie's Beach Street Cafe	Casual dining	American	35 Beach St	open
Bravo by the Sea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	40 Beach St	open
Cala's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7 Beach St	open
Captain Dusty's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	60 Beach St	open
Dbar	Bar		40 Central St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	40 Beach St Unit B	open
Dynamic Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Union St	open
essen	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	4 Summer St	open
Foreign Affairs Llc Dba Black Arrow	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26 Central St	open
Laughing Gull	Other	Sandwiches	4 Summer St	open
Maniac! coffee LLC	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	23 Elm St	open
Neighborly Restaurant Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 Beach St	open
New Hamshire	Buffet		18 Country Club Dr	open
Shine Beauty By The Sea, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17 Beach St	open
Superfine Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Union St	open
Team Biofuel	Bar		42 Central St	open
The Mooring	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 Union St	open
The “D”	Bar		Inner Harbor	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	7	—	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	9	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	7	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	5	—	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	7	—	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	5	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	8	4	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	7	5	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	7	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	6	1	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	12	7	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	7	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	14	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	14	8	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	11	6	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	10	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	10	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01944. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01965	3.1 mi	1	2016
01929	4.4 mi	18	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.