BMIE Market 01929

Essex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,621 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±76 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,337 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,504 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,600 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$156,442 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,662 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,964 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±238 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$902,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±61,873 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01929
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	40.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+38.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01929. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	71.7	72	40%	+28.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.4	57	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	67.9	68	25%	+17.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,621	55	40%	+22.1
Median household income (ACS)	156,442	97	40%	+38.7
Households (ACS)	1,337	54	20%	+10.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	49.7	10	25%	+2.4
Population (ACS)	3,621	55	20%	+11.1
Median household income (ACS)	156,442	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

Seafood 10 · American 7 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Dog Brewery	Brewery / taproom		50 Main St	open
Blue Marlin Grille	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	65 Eastern Ave	open
Boat House Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	234 John Wise Ave	open
Cape Ann Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	65 Eastern Ave	open
Capt. Vince Lobster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	57 Western Ave	open
Captain Dusty's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	121 Eastern Ave	open
CK Pearl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	112 Main St	open
DownRiver Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	241 John Wise Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	125 Main St	open
Essex Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	235 Western Ave	open
Essex River Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	162 Main St	open
Essex Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	143 Eastern Ave	open
Etta Place	Dessert		166 Eastern Ave	open
Fortune Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	99 Main St	open
G.b.g. Crowley, Inc.-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		152 Western Ave	open
Googans Galley	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1 Martin St	open
Great Marsh Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		99 Main St	open
Hearthside	Restaurant (service type not stated)		109 Eastern Ave	open
J.T. Farnham's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · BBQ	88 Eastern Ave	open
Lark Fine Foods	Bakery	Bakery	8 Scotts Way	open
Lobster Trap Pub	Bar · Casual dining	Seafood	125 Main St	open
Periwinkles Restaurant and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	74 Main St	open
Riversbend	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	35 Dodge St	open
Salty's Pizza & Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2 Martin St	open
Schooners Market	Bar		121 Eastern Ave	open
Shea's Riverside Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	122 Main St	open
The Fairway Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
The Farm Bar and Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	233 Western Ave	open
The James, Essex	Bar · Casual dining		55 Main St	open
The Lunch Lady	Food truck		71 Wood Dr	open
The Mill	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · Breakfast	121 Eastern Ave	open
The Shipyard Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		74 Main St	open
TORO Barbecue Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · BBQ	109 Eastern Ave	open
Village Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2 Martin St	open
Village Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	55 Main St	open
Windward Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		105-117 Eastern Ave	open
Woodman's of Essex Woodmans Timber	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	119 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	20	19	12	5	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	18	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	18	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	18	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	11	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	18	16	10	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	17	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	7	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	18	16	10	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	9	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	10	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	16	10	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	18	11	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	19	18	12	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	10	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	16	11	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	17	11	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	17	11	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	21	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01929. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01944	4.4 mi	10	2023
01982	4.5 mi	5	2023
01938	4.7 mi	26	2023
01930	4.9 mi	89	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.