BMIE Market 01982

Essex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,680 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,666 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±135 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,764 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,880 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$132,571 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,255 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,794 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±394 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$720,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,093 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01982
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	10 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01982. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.2	77	40%	+30.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.9	59	35%	+20.6
Market Momentum Score	10.1	10	25%	+2.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,680	67	40%	+26.7
Median household income (ACS)	132,571	93	40%	+37.4
Households (ACS)	2,666	65	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.5	86	25%	+21.6
Population (ACS)	7,680	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	132,571	93	20%	+18.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 10 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-28.6	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	-50	4	20%	+0.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 2 · Quick service 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
15 Walnut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	15 Walnut Rd	open
Daniella’s Pizzeria & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)		275 Asbury St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	15 Walnut Rd Hamilton Crossing Plaza	open
Green Meadow Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)		656 Asbury St	open
Hamilton House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	40 Railroad Ave	open
Honeycomb	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	248 Bay Rd	open
Indigo Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 Walnut Rd	open
Mark's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Italian	275 Asbury St	open
Pub 194	Bar		37 School St	open
Skaggolja	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Treat Baking Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	59 Willow St	open
Weathervane Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		85 Railroad Ave	open
Black Cow	Casual dining · Bar		16 Bay Rd	closed
Jumbo House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	30 Railroad Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	13	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01982. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01984	2.2 mi	3	2021
01915	3.9 mi	107	2023
01938	4.3 mi	26	2023
01929	4.5 mi	18	2023
01983	4.5 mi	9	2023
01965	4.6 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.