BMIE Market 02556

Barnstable County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,868 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±639 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,196 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±180 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,115 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,593 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,810 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±68,486 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,339 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,835 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$717,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73,988 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02556
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	28.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-11.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02556. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.4	67	40%	+27.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.3	54	35%	+19.0
Market Momentum Score	34.8	35	25%	+8.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,868	51	40%	+20.5
Median household income (ACS)	121,810	91	40%	+36.4
Households (ACS)	1,196	53	20%	+10.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	27.9	22	25%	+5.6
Population (ACS)	2,868	51	20%	+10.3
Median household income (ACS)	121,810	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 5 · Seafood 4 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 5 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Admiralty Inn	Bar		143 Dove Hill Rd	open
Bucatino Restaurant and Wine Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	7 Nathan Ellis Hwy	open
Burger Shack At Cape Cod	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	318 Quaker Rd	open
County Road Cookies	Bakery	Bakery	County Road	open
Daily Brew Coffee House & Lounge	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	412 N Falmouth Hwy	open
Dean's North Falmouth House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	557 N Falmouth Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	634 N Falmouth Hwy	open
Epic Oyster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	70 County Rd	open
Holy Cow Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	75 County Rd	open
Meganset Circle Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		337 Old Main Rd	open
Oyster Grand Tasting	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Seafood · Sandwiches · Bakery	350 Quaker Rd	open
Penderland	Bar		29 Long Veiw Road.	open
Prime Time House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	286 Old Main Rd	open
Red's Restaurant & Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		350 Quaker Rd	open
Silver Beach Pizza & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Pizza	557 N Falmouth Hwy	open
Silver Lounge Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	412 N Falmouth Hwy	open
Smitty's Too	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	402 N Orth Falmouth Hwy	open
Talk of the Town Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	362 N Falmouth Hwy	open
Tea Room	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	196 Crystal Spring Ave	open
The Lantern Room	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	350 Quaker Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	8	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	3	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	3	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	6	3	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	5	1	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	7	—	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02556. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02534	2.1 mi	4	2023
02559	3.5 mi	6	2023
02536	4.2 mi	31	2023
02540	4.8 mi	51	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.