BMIE Market 02655

Barnstable County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,024 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±556 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,788 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±239 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,518 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,053 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$118,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,429 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,869 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±610 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$806,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±123,375 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	6.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02655
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 8–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02655. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.0	57	35%	+20.0
Market Momentum Score	31.8	32	25%	+7.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,024	57	40%	+22.8
Median household income (ACS)	118,750	90	40%	+36.0
Households (ACS)	1,788	59	20%	+11.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.4	32	25%	+7.9
Population (ACS)	4,024	57	20%	+11.4
Median household income (ACS)	118,750	90	20%	+18.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-10	19	50%	+9.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · American 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Wianno	Coffee shop	Sandwiches · Coffee · Breakfast		open
AMIE Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1254 Main St	open
BW's Burger Joint	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	50 Fox Island Rd	open
Chart Room at Crosbys	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	330 W Bay Rd	open
Crisp Too	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	770 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	792 Main St Speedway	open
EARTHLY DELIGHTS	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	15 W Bay Rd	open
Five Bays Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	825 Main St	open
Gone Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	858 Main St	open
Hometown Juice and Co Hometown Juice & Co Sandwich	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	3 Wianno Ave	open
New England Clambake Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		752 Main St	open
Noah's Wrap	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	770 Main St	open
North Sister Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 W Bay Rd	open
Osterville Village Cafe	Café	Coffee	792 Main St	open
Sweet Tomatoes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	791 Main St	open
The Fox Hole	Bar		753 Main St	open
The Pineapple Caper Cafe	Café	Coffee	29 Wianno Ave	open
The Salty Cow	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	776 Main St	open
Wimpy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	752 Main St	open
Wimpy's Seafood Cafe and Market	Café	Seafood · Coffee	752 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	6	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	8	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	7	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	7	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	5	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	6	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	5	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02655. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02635	2.5 mi	1	2016
02648	3.1 mi	7	2023
02632	3.2 mi	16	2023
02672	4.1 mi	1	2005
02647	4.2 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.