BMIE Market 02632

Barnstable County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,685 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,544 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,814 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±573 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,742 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,171 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,317 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,177 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,370 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$616,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,600 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02632
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+45.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+77.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	75 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02632. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.3	80	40%	+32.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.8	75	35%	+26.2
Market Momentum Score	75.6	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,685	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	121,317	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	4,814	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	45.5	79	35%	+27.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.7	58	25%	+14.4
Population (ACS)	11,685	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	121,317	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	23.1	79	50%	+39.7
10-year restaurant growth	45.5	79	30%	+23.7
20-year restaurant growth	45.5	61	20%	+12.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 6 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
99 Restaurants 99 Restaurants	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food · American	1600 Falmouth Rd	open
99 Restaurants Ninety Nine Restaurant & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1600 Falmouth Road	open
Black Cat Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	16 Madison Ave	open
Cape Cod Chocolatier	Dessert	Dessert	1600 Falmouth Rd	open
Centerville Food Mart/ SUSHI BAR	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1149 Falmouth Rd	open
Centerville Pie Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert · American	1671 Falmouth Rd	open
Craigville Beach Grill	Quick service			open
Craigville Pizza & Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mexican	618 Craigville Beach Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1648 Falmouth Rd	open
Four Seas Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	360 S Main St	open
Great House Centerville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1600 Falmouth Rd	open
John A. Mahoney Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		618 Craigville Beach Rd	open
Nugent Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	333 Gleneagle Dr	open
Papa Gino's Papa Gino's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	1600 Falmouth Rd	open
Pinocchio Pizza & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1661 Falmouth Rd	open
Spanky's Clamshack Pier Spanky's Clam Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	1 Ocean Ave	open
The Barnacle	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	988 Craigville Beach Rd	open
WLYC Sunfish Lounge & Lakeside Room	Bar		150 Annable Point Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	11	5	4	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	13	11	5	3	3	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	10	5	2	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	12	5	2	5	1	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	4	2	5	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	3	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	4	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	4	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	11	4	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	14	6	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	16	6	6	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02632. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02672	2.4 mi	1	2005
02647	2.8 mi	1	2016
02601	2.8 mi	120	2023
02655	3.2 mi	9	2023
02648	3.5 mi	7	2023
02630	3.7 mi	5	2023
02668	3.8 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.