BMIE Market 02738

Plymouth County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,310 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,105 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±207 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,907 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,445 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$143,092 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,176 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±516 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$653,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,909 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02738
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02738. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75	75	40%	+30.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.3	73	35%	+25.7
Market Momentum Score	85.9	86	25%	+21.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,310	61	40%	+24.6
Median household income (ACS)	143,092	95	40%	+38.1
Households (ACS)	2,105	62	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.7	35	25%	+8.9
Population (ACS)	5,310	61	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	143,092	95	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	57.1	92	50%	+46.1
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	37.5	57	20%	+11.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Dessert 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · American 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 7 · Dessert 6 · Casual dining 5 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annie's Ice Cream Shop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2 Cottage St	open
Ansel's Garden Cafe & Boutique	Café	Coffee	403 County Rd	open
Armstrong & Grace Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		167 Spring St	open
Brew Fish Bar & Eatery	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	210 Spring St	open
Cape Cod Provisions	Dessert	Dessert	173 Wareham Rd	open
Cast Seaside Bites & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	7 Cottage St	open
Cilantro Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	374 Front St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	450 Wareham Rd	open
gilda's stoned rooster marion mass..	Bar · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Rte 6	open
Gildas Stone Rooster	Bar		wareham rd	open
Gone Country Creamery & Brys Pies	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery	2 Cottage St	open
Kate's Simple Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	148 Front St	open
Malabar Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 Upland Way	open
River Junction	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		27 Wareham Rd	open
Rose & Vicki's In Marion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	311 Wareham Rd	open
Salt Marsh Kitchens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1 Green St	open
Santoro's Pizza Marion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	434 Wareham Rd	open
Sea Dips Ice Cream by Mimis	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · American	4 Cottage St	open
Sippican Cafe	Café	Coffee	176 Spring St.	open
The Atlantic Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	167 Spring St	open
The Caz	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		10 Barros Dr	open
The Mary Celeste: Whiskey and Wine Library	Bar		7 Cottage St	open
The Wave Restaurant, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		210 Spring St	open
Tri Town Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Sandwiches · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	428 Wareham Rd	open
Uncle Jon's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	356 Front St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	5	5	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	13	8	3	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	12	7	3	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	7	3	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	6	3	1	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	5	3	—	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	5	3	—	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	6	3	—	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	7	4	—	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	6	3	—	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	7	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	7	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	7	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	7	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	8	3	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02738. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02571	4.1 mi	38	2023
02739	4.4 mi	17	2023
02576	4.6 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.