BMIE Market 03824

Strafford County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,080 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,231 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,638 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,092 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$124,056 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,086 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	20.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,429 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$504,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,671 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	22.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03824
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+12.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 22–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03824. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.9	81	40%	+32.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.5	63	35%	+22.2
Market Momentum Score	60.4	60	25%	+15.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,080	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	124,056	92	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	3,231	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12	56	35%	+19.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.6	41	25%	+10.3
Population (ACS)	15,080	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	124,056	92	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12	70	50%	+35.0
10-year restaurant growth	12	56	30%	+16.7
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (63)

By cuisine

Coffee 13 · American 9 · Pizza 5 · Asian 4 · Bakery 4 · Burgers 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Breakfast 3 · Dessert 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Greek 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Seafood 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Thai 2 · Chinese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Café 10 · Coffee shop 8 · Quick service 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Food truck 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
180 Blue Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	291 Mast Rd	open
Albert's	Café	Coffee	33 Academic Way	open
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	72 Main St	open
Bacon Egg and Cheezer	Quick service	Breakfast	1 Main St	open
Bamee Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	12 Jenkins Court	open
Bella's Casual Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	5 Mill Rd Unit K	open
Bento Sushi Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	7 Mill Rd	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	7 Mill Rd	open
Breaking New Grounds	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	50 Main St	open
Bubble Bee Tea House	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	9 Madbury Rd Apt 104	open
Clark's American Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	48 Main St	open
Craigs All Natural	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Seafood · American	25 Wine Cellar Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	7 Mill Rd	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7 Mill Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2 Dover Rd	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	75 Main St, University Of New Hampshire	open
Durham NH Smoothies	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	7 Mill Rd	open
Emery Farm	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	147 Piscataqua Rd	open
ffrost Sawyer Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	17 Newmarket Rd	open
Franz's Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	46 Main St	open
Freedom Cafe	Café	Coffee	11 Mill Road	open
Froyoworld	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9 Madbury Rd	open
Fry'd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3 Madbury Rd	open
Holloway Commons	Buffet		75 Main St	open
Hop and Grind	Bar · Casual dining	Burgers	17 Madbury Rd	open
HotMess Poutine	Quick service · Food truck	Burgers	15 Newmarket Rd	open
Insomnia Cookies Insomnia Cookies	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	9 Madbury Rd	open
JP's Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches · American	38 Main St	open
Libby's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	47 Main St	open
Mei Wei	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7 Mill Rd	open
Mei Wei	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	7 Mill Rd	open
Meme’s Sweet Treats	Bakery	Bakery	236 Mast Rd	open
Moe's Italian Sandwiches Moe's Italian Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	7 Dover Rd	open
Pauly's Pockets	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Greek	49 Main St #101	open
Rise and Grind	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	17 Madbury Rd	open
Saxbys University of New Hampshire	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	17 Madbury Rd Ste 100	open
Scorpions Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		45 Main St	open
Slice Night at DHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Greek · Italian	40 Main St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	4 Dover Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	72 Main Street	open
Sweetened Memories Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7 Denbow Rd	open
Sweetened Memories Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13 Jenkins Court	open
Thai Smile 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	13 Jenkins Court	open
The Candy Bar & Creamery	Dessert		44 Main St	open
The Freedom Cafe of Durham	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	37 Main St	open
The Juicery The Soupery	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	30 Main St	open
The Lounge - University of New Hampshire	Bar		83 Main St	open
The Spot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	13 Jenkins Ct	open
The Works Cafe The Works Bakery & Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	5 Mill Rd	open
Tideline Public House	Bar · Casual dining		15 Newmarket Rd	open
UNH Brewing Science Laboratory	Brewery / taproom		34 Sage Way	open
UNH Dairy Bar	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	3 Depot Road	open
Unh Dairy Bar	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3 Depot Rd	open
Up Street Food Truck Llp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 Newmarket Rd	open
Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	45 Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	95 Calef Highway	open
Wild Child Express	Coffee shop · Food truck · Café	Coffee	Academic Way	open
Wildcat Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3 Madbury Rd	open
Young's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	48 Main St	open
Ceo's Gelato Bistro	Dessert	Dessert	9 Madbury Rd Apt 104	closed
La Paz Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5 Mill Rd	closed
Minos Roast Beef & Seafood	Quick service		7 Mill Rd Unit F	closed
The Soupery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		30 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	25	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	27	25	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	24	20	6	10	4	2	NAICS1997
1999	24	20	6	9	5	2	NAICS1997
2000	22	18	7	7	4	2	NAICS1997
2001	26	21	10	7	4	2	NAICS1997
2002	24	22	10	9	3	1	NAICS1997
2003	26	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	26	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	28	26	13	11	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	27	25	11	11	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	28	25	9	13	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	26	21	5	12	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	29	24	7	13	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	32	26	8	15	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	33	27	9	15	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	29	24	6	16	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	30	25	7	15	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	31	26	7	15	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	31	25	7	15	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	32	27	9	15	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	35	27	9	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	32	25	6	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	33	26	8	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	26	9	13	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	29	24	8	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	25	8	13	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	35	28	8	16	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03824. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03857	3.5 mi	16	2023
03823	4.1 mi	1	2016
03861	4.5 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.