BMIE Market 03825

Strafford County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,489 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,467 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±268 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,512 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,635 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,323 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,505 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,867 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$399,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,463 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03825
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-30.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-36.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.72) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03825. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.72, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.5	76	40%	+30.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.1	55	35%	+19.3
Market Momentum Score	15.8	16	25%	+4.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,489	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	110,323	87	40%	+34.7
Households (ACS)	3,467	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-36.4	9	35%	+3.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.4	83	25%	+20.7
Population (ACS)	9,489	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	110,323	87	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-30	9	50%	+4.5
10-year restaurant growth	-36.4	9	30%	+2.6
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Dessert 4 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Dessert 4 · Bar 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
125 House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	748 Calef Hwy Ste B	open
Aroi Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	746 Calef Hwy	open
Aroma Joe’s Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	528 NH-125	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	491 Calef Hwy	open
Dante's Pasta & Vino	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	567 Calef Hwy	open
Desserts On Demand	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	126 Pond Hill Rd	open
East Coast Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	55 Calef Hwy	open
Frank Jones Restaurant And Pub Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		556 Calef Hwy	open
Golicks Dairy Bar Golicks Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	683 Calef Hwy	open
Harry’s fish bar Blackwater Harry's Fish Bar Penketh	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		1 Rosemary Ln	open
Jackie's Tavern and Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar	Breakfast	556 Calef Hwy	open
Kozy's Pizza & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	748 Calef Hwy	open
Millo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	575 Franklin Pierce Hwy	open
Smokin' Barrels	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	904 Calef Hwy	open
Spring Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	586 Calef Hwy	open
Stonehouse Baking Co	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	231 SR 125	open
Sugar & Ice Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Vegetarian · Dessert	146 Calef Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	9	—	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	3	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03825. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03839	4.6 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.