BMIE Market 03839

Strafford County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,279 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,671 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,735 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,603 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,346 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,455 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,549 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±217 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$335,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,614 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03839
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+500.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	29 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03839. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.4	63	40%	+25.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.1	44	35%	+15.4
Market Momentum Score	28.6	29	25%	+7.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,279	58	40%	+23.2
Median household income (ACS)	88,346	72	40%	+28.7
Households (ACS)	1,671	58	20%	+11.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.0	56	25%	+14.1
Population (ACS)	4,279	58	20%	+11.6
Median household income (ACS)	88,346	72	20%	+14.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 29 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	500	99	20%	+19.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (11)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	26b Gonic Rd	open
Back Hill Beer Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		73 Pickering Rd	open
Brickstones	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	73 Pickering Rd	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	160 Washington Street, Suite 103	open
Clemento's Pizzeria & Brew	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	160 Washington St	open
Clemento’s Pizzeria & Brew - Rochester	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	160 Washington St, Rochester, NH 03839-5504, United States	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	377 Gonic Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	130 Washington St	open
IHOP IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	160 Washington St	open
Progressive Foods Inc	Quick service		377 Gonic Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Sandwiches · Coffee	160 Washington St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2001	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	3	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	3	—	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	6	—	—	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03839. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03867	2.3 mi	52	2023
03868	4.5 mi	6	2023
03825	4.6 mi	7	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.