BMIE Market 03848

Rockingham County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,275 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,715 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±347 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,020 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,477 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,330 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,911 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	55.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,393 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±156 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$492,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±57,562 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03848
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.48) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03848. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.48, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.4	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.7	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	34.7	35	25%	+8.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,275	64	40%	+25.6
Median household income (ACS)	105,330	84	40%	+33.7
Households (ACS)	2,715	66	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.1	40	25%	+9.9
Population (ACS)	6,275	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	105,330	84	20%	+16.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	50%	+10.2
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · BBQ 1 · Greek 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ash Cigar Lounge	Bar		92 NH-125	open
Benson's Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	160 Main St	open
Bolton's Lakehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	22 Main St	open
Carriage Towne Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar		53 Church St	open
Darlsy’s	Bakery	Bakery	95 Exeter Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	53 Church St Carriagetown Plaza	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	126 NH-125	open
Fremont Pizzeria of Kingston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	34 Church St	open
Friends of Gerakas Family Kingston House of Pizza-Pre 10/2020	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · Greek	160 Main St	open
Josiah's Restaurant	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee	160 Main Street	open
Kingston 1686 House	Bar	American	127 Main St	open
Kingston House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	160 Main St	open
Memories Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	95 Exeter Rd	open
Rick's Cafe and Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	143 Main St	open
Rick's Food & Spirits	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		143 Main St	open
Saddle Up Saloon	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		92 NH-125	open
sourdough essentials	Bakery	Bakery	30 3rd St	open
The Blue Flue Brick Pizza Oven and BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Pizza	46 Depot Rd	open
The Draft House Lakeside Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		22 Main St	open
What's the Scoop? What's the Scoop?	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	160 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	14	4	6	4	—	NAICS1997
1999	12	12	3	5	4	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	11	3	4	4	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	11	3	4	4	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS1997
2003	13	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	6	2	4	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	15	6	3	6	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	14	6	4	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	5	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	11	5	3	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	4	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	4	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	4	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	6	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	6	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	6	—	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03848. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03858	3.3 mi	3	2021
03826	3.4 mi	9	2023
03819	3.6 mi	1	2015
03827	4.0 mi	1	2016
03865	4.8 mi	21	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.