BMIE Market 03873

Rockingham County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,628 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,348 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,711 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,119 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$135,040 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,960 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,893 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$483,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 03873
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2011, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2016	2 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2003–2011 (9 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	87 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03873. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2003–2011, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.2	76	40%	+40.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	87.2	87	35%	+40.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,628	65	40%	+25.9
Median household income (ACS)	135,040	94	40%	+37.6
Households (ACS)	2,348	64	20%	+12.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 87 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	1.5	100	25%	+38.3
Population (ACS)	6,628	65	20%	+19.9
Median household income (ACS)	135,040	94	20%	+28.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (8)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · American 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Dessert 3 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bruchetti's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	323 Main St	open
Chickadee Hill Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	343C Main St	open
Chubbs Fries & Dough	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	56 North Rd	open
Ma's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	60 Tenney Rd	open
St. Julien Macaroons	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	343 Main St	open
Triple Elm Coffee and Ice Cream	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	323 Main St	open
White Oaks Farms Inc.	Dessert	Dessert	343 Main St	open
Zorvino Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		226 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03873. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03819	2.7 mi	1	2015
03841	3.8 mi	12	2023
03826	4.2 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.