BMIE Market 04021

Cumberland County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,990 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±361 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,425 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±160 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,820 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,220 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$172,468 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,006 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,579 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$579,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,525 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04021
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04021. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.1	78	40%	+31.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79.5	79	35%	+27.8
Market Momentum Score	86.3	86	25%	+21.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,990	65	40%	+26.2
Median household income (ACS)	172,468	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	2,425	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	35%	+30.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.4	67	25%	+16.7
Population (ACS)	6,990	65	20%	+13.1
Median household income (ACS)	172,468	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	166.7	90	20%	+18.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bella Vespa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	252 Main St	open
Bru-Thru Coffee Shack	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	180 Gray Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	Maine Turnpike Mm 56	open
Caddy's Ice Cream Shack	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	169 Gray Rd	open
Cumberland House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	176 Gray Rd	open
Cumberland Service Plaza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Mile 56 Southbound	open
Dara Bistro	Coffee shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	371 Tuttle Rd	open
Flannel Shirt Food Company Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		371 Tuttle Rd Apt 1	open
Lavender & Twine	Bakery	Bakery	6 Blanchard Rd	open
Louie's Grille	Casual dining · Bar		319 Main St	open
Rachel's On The Green	Café · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	60 Val Halla Rd	open
Rise Pizza and Pub	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	319 Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	ME Turnpike South MM56	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	Maine Turnpike, Cumberland	open
The Daily-Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	326 Main St	open
Wander at LongWoods	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	76 Longwoods Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	3	—	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04021. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04105	3.6 mi	23	2023
04097	3.9 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.