BMIE Market 04073

York County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,414 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±583 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,508 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,189 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,397 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,917 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,407 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,151 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±88 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$282,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,911 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	37.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	33 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04073
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-19.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+6.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	36 (range 30–42) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04073. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.4	68	40%	+27.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.1	41	35%	+14.4
Market Momentum Score	14.9	15	25%	+3.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,414	79	40%	+31.6
Median household income (ACS)	72,917	52	40%	+20.7
Households (ACS)	7,508	80	20%	+16.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-19.5	14	35%	+5.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.0	40	25%	+10.0
Population (ACS)	17,414	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	72,917	52	20%	+10.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	-19.5	14	30%	+4.2
20-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	20%	+3.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (84)

By cuisine

American 16 · Coffee 11 · Bakery 8 · Sandwiches 8 · Dessert 7 · Asian 6 · Breakfast 6 · Burgers 5 · Pizza 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · BBQ 3 · Caribbean 3 · Chinese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Seafood 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Korean 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 44 · Quick service 14 · Bar 12 · Dessert 12 · Bakery 11 · Café 7 · Casual dining 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Food truck 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amato's Xpress	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1227 Main St	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1364 Main Street	open
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	42 Jagger Mill Rd	open
Aroma Joe's Coffee Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	6 Washington St	open
Aroma Joe’s Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1247 Main St	open
Azul Agave Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · American	6 Lebanon St	open
Back Street Sanford	Bar	American	16 School St	open
Backstreet Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar			open
Berryfull	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee	1364 Main St	open
Bonanza Steakhouse	Buffet		1285 Main St	open
Burger Budz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1364 Main St Ste 13	open
Candytubs Llc	Dessert		886 Main St Ste 201	open
Cockpit Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	199A Airport Road	open
Coriannder's Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	890 Main St	open
courtesy Multitude	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Korean	4730 N 19th Ave	open
Cruisin' Infusions	Casual dining · Bar		890 Main St	open
Dirty Dozen	Bakery	Bakery	913 Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	974 Main Street	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	925 Main Street	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1503 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	577 Main St	open
Egg Roll Cafe	Café	Coffee · Chinese · Asian	1299 Main St	open
El Mexicano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1364 Main St #16	open
Favorites Sanford Otb & Sports Pub	Bar			open
Flat Top Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1735 Main St	open
Frannie's Mini Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	913 Main St	open
Gold Pine Tree Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1364 Main St Ste 16	open
Green Tea Restaraunt	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Chinese · Asian	1005 Main St	open
Guerrero Maya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	16 SCHOOL St	open
Hanna's Tavern	Bar		324 Country Club Rd	open
Heritage Memorials	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1147 Main St	open
Hoot Dawgs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		1438 Main St	open
Indoor Flea Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	898 Main St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1244 Main Street	open
KINDNESS COOKIES	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	3 Dubois Dr	open
Lord's Clam Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1465 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	1008 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1439 Main St	open
Mee-D	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	886 Main St	open
Mel's Raspberry Patch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	372 Alfred Rd	open
Moe's Italian Sandwiches Moe's Italian Sandwiches	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	6 School St	open
Moe's Italian Sandwiches	Other	Sandwiches	4 School St	open
One Love Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Caribbean	6 Lebanon St	open
OTTO OTTO	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	1299 Main St	open
Packy's Apiary	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	232 Harry Howes Rd	open
Paras Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	45 High St	open
Pearl Baking Company	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	12 Pleasant Ave	open
Pho Time	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	890 Main St	open
Pilots Cove Cafe Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		199 Airport Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1364 Main St York	open
Richie's Jerk & BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · BBQ	35 Washington St	open
River Junction Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1491 Main St	open
Rosa's Deli Rosa's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	49 Pioneer Ave	open
Sanford House Of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	990 Main St	open
Shain's of Maine	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	1491 Main St	open
Shaker Pond Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6 Smada Dr	open
Shane's of Maine	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Shaw's Ridge Farm Ice Cream, BBQ Barn & Mini-Golf	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · BBQ	59 Shaws Ridge Rd	open
Spectator's Bar and Grille	Bar		168 Country Club Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	1364 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1364 Main St	open
Sundstrom Inc. Dba Moe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6 School St	open
Sweet Memories Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Sandwiches · American	937 Main St	open
Texas Grace Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	42 Jagger Mill Rd	open
The Chilean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Sandwiches	1364 Main St Ste 13	open
The Country Egg	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1299 Main St	open
The Green Room	Casual dining · Bar		898 Main St	open
The Hangar Food Truck Park	Food truck		199 Airport Rd	open
The Maine Treatery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	24 Twombley Rd	open
The Sandwich Shack	Food truck	Sandwiches · American	898 Main St	open
The Town Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 Washington St	open
Third Alarm Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	47 Washington St	open
Tommy's Corner Pub	Bar		29 Washington St	open
VFW Mens Auxiliary Post 9935	Bar		1 Hutchinson St	open
Village Pizza Of Sanford Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1735 Main St	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1930 Main St	open
Weathervane Sanford	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1601 Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1340 Main St	open
Wolves Club	Bar		40 High St	open
Xenophobe Free	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	105 Main St	open
Y H Wang Inc Dba-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1005 Main St	open
Yummy House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	890 Main St	open
Bubba frye's Wings & Things	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	890 Main St Ste 200B	closed
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1930 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	33	31	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	27	25	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	28	26	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	35	33	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	38	35	11	19	5	2	NAICS1997
1999	40	36	14	19	3	3	NAICS1997
2000	40	36	15	18	3	3	NAICS1997
2001	37	34	13	19	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	40	35	14	18	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	44	39	16	19	3	3	NAICS2002
2004	42	37	15	18	3	3	NAICS2002
2005	39	34	15	14	4	3	NAICS2002
2006	39	33	14	13	4	4	NAICS2002
2007	45	39	20	14	5	4	NAICS2002
2008	41	36	17	13	6	2	NAICS2007
2009	43	37	16	14	7	3	NAICS2007
2010	41	37	18	14	5	2	NAICS2007
2011	39	34	17	13	4	2	NAICS2007
2012	36	33	15	12	5	1	NAICS2012
2013	43	41	16	16	8	—	NAICS2012
2014	37	35	12	13	9	—	NAICS2012
2015	35	34	12	14	7	—	NAICS2012
2016	39	38	14	15	8	—	NAICS2012
2017	44	43	18	16	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	41	39	13	16	9	—	NAICS2017
2019	43	41	14	17	9	—	NAICS2017
2020	40	38	13	16	8	—	NAICS2017
2021	39	37	14	15	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	40	37	12	17	8	—	NAICS2022
2023	37	33	12	13	8	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04073. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03906	4.6 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.