BMIE Market 03906

York County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,368 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±291 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,065 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±137 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,647 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,951 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$105,156 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,524 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,105 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$432,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,649 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03906
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	82 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03906. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.8	67	35%	+23.4
Market Momentum Score	81.6	82	25%	+20.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,368	62	40%	+24.6
Median household income (ACS)	105,156	84	40%	+33.6
Households (ACS)	2,065	61	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	42.9	78	35%	+27.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.6	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	5,368	62	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	105,156	84	20%	+16.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	42.9	78	30%	+23.5
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (14)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Allard's Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Delivery-focused	Sandwiches	68 Elm St	open
Aroma Joe's Aroma Joe's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	19 Main St	open
Bubba Frye's Wings & Things	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	22 Elm St	open
Carpe Diem Coffee Roasting Co	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	150 Wells St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	23 Wells St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Jim's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	22 Elm St	open
Johnsons Seafood & Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse	18 Elm St	open
NoBo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	42 Main St	open
North Buick Lounge	Bar		Main street	open
Red Leaves Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6 High St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	23 Wells St	open
Tibbs Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		257 Maple St	open
Town Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Italian	44 Market St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	5	—	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	10	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03906. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04073	4.6 mi	33	2023
03901	4.8 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.