BMIE Market 04345
Kennebec County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 12,579 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,083 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±364 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 11,646 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 5,421 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $77,410 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,534 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 41.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,045 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±137 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $242,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,820 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 71.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04345 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 12.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 9 (range 6–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04345. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 68.0 | 68 | 40% | +27.2 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 49.1 | 49 | 35% | +17.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 27.4 | 27 | 25% | +6.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 12,579 | 74 | 40% | +29.6 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 77,410 | 59 | 40% | +23.4 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,083 | 75 | 20% | +14.9 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -25 | 12 | 35% | +4.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 9.5 | 74 | 25% | +18.5 |
| Population (ACS) | 12,579 | 74 | 20% | +14.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 77,410 | 59 | 20% | +11.7 |
Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -25 | 12 | 30% | +3.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -14.3 | 15 | 20% | +3.1 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (37)
By cuisine
American 4 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 7 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 3 Bridge St | open |
| Bateau Brewing | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 149 Water St | open | |
| Bintliff's Corner Brew | Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar | 153 Water St | open | |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 29 Lewiston Rd | open |
| Canton Village Chinese Restaurant | Buffet | Chinese · Asian | 428 Water St | open |
| Chadwick's Craft Spirits | Winery / distillery / taproom | 29 Chadwick Ln | open | |
| Crooked Halo Cider House | Bar | 46 Church St | open | |
| Dave's Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 390 Brunswick Ave | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 192 Water St | open |
| Doom Forest Distillery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar | 29 Chadwick Ln | open | |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 288 Lewiston Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 35 Bridge St | open |
| Frosty's Donuts Frosty's Donuts | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee · Bakery | 335 Water St | open |
| Gerard's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 233 Water St | open |
| Grilla Bowl | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual | Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls | 343 Water St | open |
| Isamax Snacks | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 1 Commonwealth St | open |
| Knead a Little Love | Bakery | Bakery | 219 Neck Rd | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 599 Hallowell Litchfield Rd | open |
| Lisa's Legit Burritos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 304 Water St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 40 Bridge St | open |
| Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 288 Lewiston Rd | open |
| Quiznos | Other · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches · Coffee | 288 Lewiston Rd | open |
| Red's Pizza & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 412 Water St, Gardiner, ME 04345 | open |
| Run Amok Mead | Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom | 1043 High St | open | |
| Scrummy Afters Candy Shoppe | Dessert | 293 Water St | open | |
| Steel House Oven | Food truck · Catering | Pizza | 29 Chadwick Ln | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 35 Bridge St | open |
| Table Bar | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 207 Water St | open | |
| The Bench | Bar · Casual dining | 418 Water St | open | |
| The Butcher & The Baker | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Oaklands Farm Road | open | |
| The Cats Familiar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 318 Water St | open | |
| The Depot Sports Pub | Bar | 14 Maine Ave | open | |
| The Mad Dog Pub | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 259 Water St | open | |
| Three Bridge Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3 Bridge St | open | |
| Water Street Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 463 Water Street | open |
| Waterfront Nutrition | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 226 Water St | open |
| 1 Brunswick Trading | Bar | 259 Water St | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 17 | 16 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 14 | 13 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 16 | 15 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 16 | 15 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 5 | — | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 6 | — | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 5 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 18 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 17 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 5 | — | — | NAICS2022 |