BMIE Market 04538

Lincoln County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,810 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	978 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±132 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,080 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,960 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$56,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,353 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	64.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,058 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±123 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$388,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,228 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04538
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	105.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-4.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-14.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+15.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 11–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.42) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	33 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	22 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04538. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.42, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	36.5	37	40%	+14.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	21.6	22	35%	+7.6
Market Momentum Score	43.0	43	25%	+10.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,810	43	40%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	56,500	24	40%	+9.6
Households (ACS)	978	49	20%	+9.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 22 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-4.2	21	35%	+7.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	127.1	3	25%	+0.8
Population (ACS)	1,810	43	20%	+8.6
Median household income (ACS)	56,500	24	20%	+4.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.5	67	50%	+33.5
10-year restaurant growth	-4.2	21	30%	+6.4
20-year restaurant growth	-14.8	15	20%	+3.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (56)

By cuisine

Seafood 19 · American 14 · Coffee 8 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Breakfast 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 37 · Bar 13 · Casual dining 10 · Café 7 · Dessert 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Bakery 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amore Bistro Italiano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	28 Union St	open
Anchor Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	204 Townsend Ave	open
Andrews Harborside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	10 Bridge St	open
Baker's Way	Bakery	Bakery	89 Townsend Ave	open
Blue Moon Café	Café	Coffee	54 Commercial St	open
Boathouse Bistro Tapas Bar & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Spanish / tapas	12 By-Way	open
Boothbay Harbor House of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	185 Townsend Ave	open
Boothbay Lobster Wharf	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	97 Atlantic Ave	open
Brady's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	25 Union St	open
Bridge Street Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	4 Bridge St	open
Brisetto's Second Cup	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	41 Commercial St	open
Cabbage Island Clambakes	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	22 Commercial St	open
China By the Sea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	96 Townsend Ave	open
Coastal Prime	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	35 Atlantic Ave	open
cod's head fish house and bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	63 Atlantic Ave	open
Daffy Taffy Factory & Fudge Factory	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	7 By-Way	open
Deck Oceanside Cafe At The Spruce Point Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		88 Grandview Ave	open
Downeast Ice Cream Factory	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1 By-Way	open
Dunton's Doghouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	40 Sea St	open
Ebb Tide Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		43 Commercial St	open
Farm 23	Bakery	Bakery	102 Ocean Point Rd	open
Finn McCools	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Commercial St	open
Footbridge Brewery & BBQ	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	25 Granary Way	open
Harbor Treats	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Breakfast	12 Bridge St	open
HarborSide 1901 Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · Steakhouse	12 Bridge St	open
Herringbones	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	16B Wharf St	open
Kaler's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	48 Commercial St	open
Kankas Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16B Wharf St	open
Mama D's Cafe Mercantile	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	50 Union St	open
Marcel's Submarine Shop	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	25 Townsend Ave	open
McSeagull's Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	14 Wharf St	open
Mel's Place Wood Fired Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1 Howard St	open
Mine Oyster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	16 Wharf St	open
Nautical Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	43 Oak St	open
Neat Whiskey Bar	Bar		25 Townsend Ave	open
Orne's Candy Store	Dessert	Dessert	11 Commercial St 2nd floor	open
Pier 6 Tavern	Bar		22 Commercial St	open
Pier One Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	15 Wharf St	open
Ports of Italy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	47 Commercial St	open
PORTS Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	28 Union St	open
Rdr Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		55 Oak St	open
Red Cup Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	29 Commercial St	open
Salty Stag Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Casual dining · Bar	American	88 Grandview Ave	open
Shannon's Unshelled	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	11 Granary Way	open
SJ’s Sea Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	23 Granary Way	open
SS & DC INC d/b/a Sarah’s Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	206 Townsend Ave	open
Taka Mediterranean Bar and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mediterranean · Sushi · Japanese	16B Wharf St	open
The Deck Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		92 Wall Point Rd	open
The Lobster Dock	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	49 Atlantic Ave	open
The Mystic Mermaid	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16B Wharf St	open
The Thistle Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	55 Oak St #53	open
The Whales Tale Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	125 Atlantic Ave	open
Townsend Avenue Coffee House & Wine Bar	Coffee shop · Café · Bar	Coffee	53 Townsend Ave	open
Tugboat Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	80 Commercial St	open
Waves	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	43 Commercial St	open
Woodsong Market	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	23 Townsend Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	28	28	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	26	25	15	8	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	24	23	15	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	27	26	16	9	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	23	23	17	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	25	24	18	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	28	27	18	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	30	29	21	5	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	26	25	17	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	27	25	17	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	23	19	10	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2008	22	20	11	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	21	19	11	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	24	22	13	6	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	24	23	13	6	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	27	25	15	6	4	2	NAICS2012
2013	26	24	16	6	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	29	28	17	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	32	31	19	8	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	30	28	18	6	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	25	24	16	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	21	12	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	22	12	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	20	11	5	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	22	12	5	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	24	22	12	4	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	23	14	3	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04538. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04575	1.7 mi	—
04544	2.7 mi	3	2023
04570	2.7 mi	1	2006
04576	2.9 mi	2	2016
04537	3.8 mi	6	2023
04571	4.1 mi	1	2006
04568	4.5 mi	2	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.