BMIE Market 04568

Lincoln County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	512 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	304 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	391 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	777 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,478 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,347 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±65 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$550,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±241,906 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	2 2011 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2011 detail (NAICS2007) · by USPS ZIP 04568
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2000, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2001 → 2011, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2016	2 (range 1–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1994–2011 (6 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.34) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	23 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04568. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1994–2011, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.34, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	22.7	23	40%	+9.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.2	44	35%	+15.5
Market Momentum Score	94.6	95	25%	+23.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	512	22	40%	+8.6
Median household income (ACS)	54,478	21	40%	+8.4
Households (ACS)	304	28	20%	+5.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	39.1	14	25%	+3.4
Population (ACS)	512	22	20%	+4.3
Median household income (ACS)	54,478	21	20%	+4.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+60.0
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+34.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (8)

By cuisine

Seafood 4 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Bar 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Coveside Restaurant & Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	98 Coveside Rd	open
Harborside Market & Grill	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	2075 ME-129	open
Island Grocery	Bakery	Bakery	12 West Side Rd	open
Kneaded Provisions	Coffee shop	Coffee	12 W Side Rd	open
Maggies Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	2125 ME-129	open
Miss Ashley's Sub Shack	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Seafood	8 Mcfarlands Cove Rd	open
Osier's Seafood	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Seafood · Sandwiches	2104 ME-129	open
South Bristol, Town of	Bar			open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2000	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2004	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2011	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04568. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04558	1.9 mi	1	2016
04554	2.8 mi	6	2023
04537	3.6 mi	6	2023
04541	3.7 mi	1	2001
04538	4.5 mi	23	2023
04573	4.5 mi	1	2008
04544	4.9 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.