BMIE Market 04864

Knox County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,932 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,645 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±230 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,751 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,760 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,616 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,820 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±456 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$232,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±32,304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2016 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2016 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 04864
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2021	0 (range 0–2) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2002–2016 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04864. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2002–2016, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.5	57	40%	+23.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.3	49	35%	+17.3
Market Momentum Score	27.8	28	25%	+7.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,932	60	40%	+24.1
Median household income (ACS)	74,616	55	40%	+21.8
Households (ACS)	1,645	58	20%	+11.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.0	99	25%	+24.8
Population (ACS)	4,932	60	20%	+12.0
Median household income (ACS)	74,616	55	20%	+10.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 28 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+26.1
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (10)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Little Birds Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	213 Depot Rd	open
Chat and Chow	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2000 Atlantic Hwy	open
Oyster River Winegrowers	Winery / distillery / taproom		929 Oyster River Rd	open
Oyster River Winegrowers	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		929 Oyster River Rd	open
Papa Jack’s	Food truck	Sandwiches	2590 Camden Rd	open
Piece Of Cake	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Silver Lane Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Silver Ln	open
St. George Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	310 Main St	open
St. George River Cafe	Café	Coffee	310 Main St	open
Town Line Video Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3163 Atlantic Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2016	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04864. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04861	3.9 mi	13	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.