BMIE Market 04861

Knox County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,769 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,420 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±129 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,781 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,385 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$56,435 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,937 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,262 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±343 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$271,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,061 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	10.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04861
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	25.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+116.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+62.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.37) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04861. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.37, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	40.9	41	40%	+16.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.1	45	35%	+15.8
Market Momentum Score	87.1	87	25%	+21.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,769	51	40%	+20.3
Median household income (ACS)	56,435	24	40%	+9.5
Households (ACS)	1,420	55	20%	+11.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	44.4	79	35%	+27.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	47.0	11	25%	+2.6
Population (ACS)	2,769	51	20%	+10.2
Median household income (ACS)	56,435	24	20%	+4.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	62.5	93	50%	+46.3
10-year restaurant growth	44.4	79	30%	+23.6
20-year restaurant growth	116.7	86	20%	+17.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 5 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	194 New County Road	open
Athens Mediterranean Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Pizza · Italian	179 Main St	open
China Fortune	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	153 New County Rd	open
Cosmic Café	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	12 Shepard Dr	open
Crooked Spoon Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		173 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	206 New County Rd	open
FlipSide Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	189 Main St	open
Honey's Fried Chicken Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	153 New County Rd	open
Hot Hill Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	1 Starr St	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	198 New County Rd	open
Ka Chai Thai Street Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	444 Main St	open
Laurel's Dolce Vita	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Italian	350 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	158 New County Road	open
Pak Pho and Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Vietnamese · Sushi · Asian	218 New County Rd	open
Rock City Cycle	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	28 Dexter St Ext	open
Station 118	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	118 Main St	open
Sunny's Scoops	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Buttermilk Ln	open
The Block Saloon	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	173 Main St	open
The Slipway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	24 Public Ldg	open
The Uproot Pie Co.	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9 Green St	open
The Zack Shack	Food truck	Burgers · American	212 New County Rd	open
Thomaston Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	154 Main St	open
Up in Smoke BBQ Maine	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	212 New County Rd	open
The Highlands Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	189 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	4	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	9	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	9	4	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	4	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	4	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04861. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04841	2.7 mi	36	2023
04864	3.9 mi	1	2016
04858	4.3 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.