BMIE Market 05001

Windsor County, Vermont · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,751 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±482 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,152 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,123 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,151 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$78,092 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,204 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±94 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$296,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,505 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 05001
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+36.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.07) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 05001. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.07, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Vermont and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 169, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66.3	66	40%	+26.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.9	45	35%	+15.7
Market Momentum Score	54.9	55	25%	+13.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,751	70	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	78,092	59	40%	+23.8
Households (ACS)	4,152	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	35%	+6.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	9,751	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	78,092	59	20%	+11.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	15.4	73	50%	+36.7
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	30%	+5.2
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 6 · Bakery 4 · BBQ 4 · Pizza 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Bar 7 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Fatty S BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	2196 Christian St	open
Big Fatty's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	186 S Main St	open
Boho Cafe	Café	Coffee	39 N Main St	open
C & S Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	104 S Main St	open
Chef and Butcher	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	87 Maple St	open
Chester's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	18 Sykes Mountain Ave	open
China Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	42 Sykes Mountain Ave	open
Coventry Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		39 S Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	352 N Hartland Rd	open
Elixir	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	188 S Main St	open
Fontinalis	Winery / distillery / taproom		27 N Main St Ste 10	open
Green Mountain Pizza Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Pizza	1046 Kings Hwy	open
Hartford Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	842 Hartford Ave	open
Hua Teng Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42 Sykes Mountain Ave	open
Juel Modern Apothecary	Café	Coffee	27 N Main St Ste 10	open
Le Page Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1153 Va Cutoff Rd	open
Lo's Bakehouse	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	222 Campbell St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	45 Beswick Dr	open
Phnom Penh Sandwich Station	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Southeast Asian (other) · Asian	7 S Main St	open
Piecemeal Pies	Other · Bakery	Bakery	5 S Main St	open
Pierogi Me!	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	1 Quechee Main St	open
Pizza Chef of Quechee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Burgers · American	5893 Woodstock Rd	open
Putnam's Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		188 S Main St	open
Putney Mountain Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5569 Woodstock Rd	open
River Roost Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		230 S Main St	open
Route 4 Country Store Deli & Bar-B-Que	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3699 Woodstock Rd #ROUTE4	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1038 N Main St Rte 5 & Airport Rd	open
Sugar Glider Kitchen	Bakery	Bakery	Upper Valley of Vermont, 42 N Main St	open
Taj-E-India	Catering	Indian · Asian	13 Lower Hyde Park	open
The Chameleon Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Casual dining	Coffee · American	39 S Main St	open
The Filling Station	Bar		70 Gates St	open
The Skinny Pancake Quechee The Skinny Pancake	Café	Breakfast · Coffee	7161 Woodstock Rd	open
The Wine Closet	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		39 S. Main St.	open
Thyme Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	85 N Main St	open
TRAIL BREAK taps + tacos	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	129 S Main St	open
Tuckerbox	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	1 S Main St	open
Vermont Amber	Café · Dessert	Coffee	226 Holiday Dr	open
Vermont Spirits Distilling Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		5573 Woodstock Rd	open
Whistlestop Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	50 Depot St	open
Wicked Awesome Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	93 Beswick Dr	open
Wolf Tree	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		40 Currier St	open
WRJ New Chinamoon Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	96 Sykes Mountain Ave	open
Cantore's Crossroads Cafe	Café	Coffee	96 Sykes Mountain Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	19	17	11	5	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	18	15	8	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	18	15	8	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	21	17	8	8	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	18	14	9	5	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	16	10	6	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	22	18	11	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	20	16	9	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	17	13	7	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	18	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	16	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	16	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	17	13	6	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	20	14	6	5	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	24	17	9	5	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	21	15	7	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	20	14	7	4	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	12	7	3	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	20	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	14	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	14	7	6	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	21	15	6	8	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 05001. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
05009	2.9 mi	—
05088	3.5 mi	1	2016
05059	4.2 mi	4	2023
03784	4.7 mi	28	2023
05084	4.9 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.