BMIE Market 06018

Litchfield County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,587 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±281 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,079 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±175 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,865 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,435 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,917 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37,653 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,155 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$280,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49,319 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06018
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	38.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06018. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.1	48	40%	+19.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34.7	35	35%	+12.2
Market Momentum Score	36.9	37	25%	+9.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,587	50	40%	+19.8
Median household income (ACS)	68,917	45	40%	+18.1
Households (ACS)	1,079	51	20%	+10.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	38.7	14	25%	+3.5
Population (ACS)	2,587	50	20%	+9.9
Median household income (ACS)	68,917	45	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Mexican 3 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Café 3 · Quick service 3 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Birdies Bar & Grill at the Canaan Country Club	Casual dining · Bar	American	74 High St	open
Blackberry River Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Casual dining · Café	Bakery · American · Coffee	99 Main St	open
Cafe Gourmet Bakery & Catering	Bakery · Catering · Café	Bakery · Coffee	18 E Main St	open
Collins Diner	Casual dining	American	53 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	3 E Main St	open
Falls Village Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	33 Railroad St	open
Great Falls Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		75 Main St	open
Great Wall Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	97 Church St	open
Homegrown Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	5 Railroad St	open
Industry Kitchen & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	American	14 Railroad St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	18 Main St	open
Olde School Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	21 Railroad St	open
Picante's Canaan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	499 Ashley Falls Rd	open
Railway Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	77 S Canaan Rd	open
Roma Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	81 W Main St	open
Stateline Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	340 N Elm St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	101 Church St Unit 4	open
Sweet William	Bakery	Bakery	100 Main St	open
Teo Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	85 Main St	open
Trackside Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	37 Main St	open
Zia Maria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14 Railroad St	open
La Cucina Cabinetry Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	403B Ashley Falls Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	6	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06018. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01222	1.8 mi	1	2004
06024	2.4 mi	1	2005
01257	4.4 mi	3	2022
06079	4.4 mi	1	1996
01259	4.8 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.