BMIE Market 06029

Tolland County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,238 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,271 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,547 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,644 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$129,331 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,164 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,728 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$367,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,617 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	24 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06029
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+118.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+140.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	30 (range 25–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06029. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.8	84	40%	+33.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.2	73	35%	+25.6
Market Momentum Score	60.1	60	25%	+15.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,238	78	40%	+31.2
Median household income (ACS)	129,331	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	6,271	78	20%	+15.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.8	53	25%	+13.4
Population (ACS)	16,238	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	129,331	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	118.2	86	20%	+17.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 7 · Dessert 5 · Italian 5 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Chinese 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3js Deli and Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	99 Stafford Rd	open
Backroads Smokin' BBQ	Catering	BBQ · American	292 Sandy Beach Rd	open
Carleigh's Soft Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 Crystal Lake Rd	open
Casey's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	127 West Rd	open
Chic's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	41 West Rd	open
China Eagle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	175 West Rd #13	open
Chuck Wagon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12 Church St	open
Cold Creek Brewery	Brewery / taproom		6 Industrial Dr	open
Daigle's Dough	Bakery	Bakery	213 Pinney St	open
DiFiore Ravioli Shop of Ellington	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	287 Somers Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	194 Windsorville Rd	open
Ellington Depot Cafe & Market	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	1 Crystal Lake Rd	open
Ellington Nutrition Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	175 West Rd	open
Ellington Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	188 Windsorville Rd	open
Flavors of Nawab	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	4 West Rd	open
Gerry's Donuts of Ellington	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	180 Windsorville Rd	open
Heirloom Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		89 West Rd Unit 4	open
Holiday Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American · Italian	117 West Rd	open
Hometwon Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	175 West Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	135 West Rd #83	open
JRego's Gathering Place	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	175 West Rd	open
Kloter's Ice Cream Barn	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	216 West Rd	open
Luann's Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	238 Somers Rd	open
Luann's Drive Thru	Coffee shop	Coffee	140 West Rd	open
McClellan	Brewery / taproom · Bar		26 Stein Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	135 West Road	open
No Coast Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12 Main St	open
Nordic Moon Meadery	Brewery / taproom		5 Industrial Dr	open
Panda Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	101 Stafford Rd, Ellington, CT 06029	open
Pitney Farm	Food truck		193 Pinney St	open
Pizzeria Davinci	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	117 West Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	135 West Road	open
Still Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		87 West Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	175 West Rd	open
Tavern At The Meadows	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		76 Sadds Mill Rd	open
Tea House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	89 West Rd	open
The Hidden Still	Bar · Casual dining		87 West Rd	open
The Scoop Ice Cream Cafe	Dessert · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	18 Church St	open
Trattoria Da Lepri	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	89 West Rd	open
Wen Ming House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chinese · American	89 West Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	135 West Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	14	10	7	2	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	17	12	9	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	14	9	6	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	12	7	4	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	15	10	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	6	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	16	9	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	16	9	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	16	9	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	20	20	11	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	9	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	7	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	23	11	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	24	11	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	21	9	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	21	9	7	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	25	12	7	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	24	11	7	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	24	12	7	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06029. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06084	5.0 mi	8	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.