BMIE Market 06084

Tolland County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,823 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±213 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,370 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±285 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,067 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,457 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$133,611 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,670 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,693 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$365,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,256 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	40.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06084
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06084. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.1	83	40%	+33.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.3	60	35%	+21.1
Market Momentum Score	15.2	15	25%	+3.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,823	76	40%	+30.6
Median household income (ACS)	133,611	94	40%	+37.5
Households (ACS)	5,370	75	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	35%	+3.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.4	90	25%	+22.6
Population (ACS)	14,823	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	133,611	94	20%	+18.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	30%	+3.2
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · American 2 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Quick service 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Creamery	Dessert · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	206 Merrow Rd	open
Bubba’s Bagel’s and Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	16 Grahaber Rd	open
Camille's Wood Fired Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	23 Fieldstone Cmns	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	65 Merrow Rd	open
Electric Blue Cafe	Bar		62 Merrow Rd	open
Jeff's Kettle Corn	Quick service		71 Hartford Tpke	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	404 Merrow Rd	open
Lee's Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 Merrow Rd	open
Oyama Japanese & Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Thai · Asian	200 Merrow Rd	open
Papa T's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	64 Merrow Rd	open
Radial Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	12 Goose Ln	open
Rough Cut Cider House @ Lemek's	Brewery / taproom · Bar		351 Goose Ln	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	70 Merrow Rd	open
The Spot Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	200 Merrow Rd	open
Tolland Family Restaurant and Pizza &pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	225 Merrow Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	33 Fieldstone Cmns	open
Zest Unique Dining and Catering	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	167 Tolland Stage Rd	open
Emerald City Smoothie	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	100 Gerber Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	7	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	3	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	3	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	10	5	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	8	5	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	10	7	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	6	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	6	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	12	9	5	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	18	11	6	3	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	16	10	6	2	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	13	10	6	2	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	6	2	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	14	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06084. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06029	5.0 mi	24	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.