BMIE Market 06039

Litchfield County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,918 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±448 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	685 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,942 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,287 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,859 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±76,124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,833 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,550 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$754,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±157,167 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06039
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	56.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.37) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06039. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.37, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.6	60	40%	+23.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.5	34	35%	+11.7
Market Momentum Score	12.5	13	25%	+3.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,918	44	40%	+17.6
Median household income (ACS)	104,859	84	40%	+33.6
Households (ACS)	685	42	20%	+8.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	31.3	19	25%	+4.7
Population (ACS)	1,918	44	20%	+8.8
Median household income (ACS)	104,859	84	20%	+16.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	20%	+1.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (10)

By cuisine

American 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 2 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · European 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Black Rabbit Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	2 Ethan Allen St	open
China Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	343 Main St	open
Deano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	24 Millerton Rd	open
Fern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	9 Sharon Rd	open
Good Eats Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 Ethan Allen St	open
Mizza's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6 Ethan Allen St	open
On the Run Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	4 Ethan Allen St	open
Picante's South West Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	227 Main St	open
The Boathouse At Lakeville	Casual dining · Bar	Japanese · Sushi · American	349 Main St	open
The Woodland	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	192 Sharon Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	14	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	9	7	—	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	6	—	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	7	—	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	9	6	—	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	11	7	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	11	9	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	9	7	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	11	9	—	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	10	8	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	10	9	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	8	7	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	6	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06039. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06068	3.3 mi	3	2018
12546	4.2 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.