BMIE Market 12546

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,706 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,149 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,039 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,642 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,455 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,158 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,420 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±313 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$313,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73,201 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12546
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	29.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+42.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	31 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12546. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.5	58	40%	+23.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	30.9	31	35%	+10.8
Market Momentum Score	14.6	15	25%	+3.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,706	50	40%	+20.1
Median household income (ACS)	84,455	67	40%	+27.0
Households (ACS)	1,149	52	20%	+10.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 31 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	35%	+3.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	37.0	15	25%	+3.7
Population (ACS)	2,706	50	20%	+10.1
Median household income (ACS)	84,455	67	20%	+13.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-23.1	12	50%	+6.0
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	30%	+3.1
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bar 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Avocado Cafe Avocado cafe	Café	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Coffee	208 Route 44	open
Beer Universe	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		208 US-44	open
Broadway Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	44 Main St	open
Candy-O's	Dessert	Dessert	22 Main St	open
Four Brothers Pizza Inn Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5952 N Elm Ave	open
Golden Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Sushi · Japanese	2 Main St	open
Harney & Sons	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	13 Main St	open
House on the Hill Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	4664 RT-199	open
Irving Farm Coffee House Irving Farm New York	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	44 Main St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	123 U.S. 44	open
Manna Dew Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	54 Main St	open
McDonald's	Quick service		130 Route 44	open
Muanjai Tea Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	28 Main St	open
No. 9	Restaurant (service type not stated)		53 Main St	open
Oakhurst Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	19 Main St	open
Pasture Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Healthy / salads / bowls · American	130 US-44	open
Rookie Farm Bakery	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	24 Main St	open
Round III	Casual dining	American	5523 NY-22	open
Round Tuit	Casual dining	American	5523 Rt 22	open
Talk of the Towne Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	138 US-44	open
Taro's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	18 Main St	open
The Millerton Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	53 Main St	open
Willa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	52 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	—	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	2	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	10	3	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	12	6	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	6	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12546. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06039	4.2 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.