BMIE Market 06238

Tolland County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,326 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,926 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,428 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,096 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,213 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,232 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±330 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$330,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,727 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	37.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06238
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+125.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06238. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.6	79	40%	+31.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.1	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	58.1	58	25%	+14.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,326	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	108,213	86	40%	+34.3
Households (ACS)	4,926	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.3	83	25%	+20.8
Population (ACS)	12,326	74	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	108,213	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	125	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · Italian 5 · Coffee 4 · American 3 · Chinese 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 4 · Café 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bidwell Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	1260 Main St	open
Cassidy Hill Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		454 Cassidy Hill Rd	open
Country Snack Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	2767 Boston Turnpike	open
Courtside Nutrition	Café	Coffee	3466 Main St	open
Coventry Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1467 South St	open
Dimitri's Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3444 Main St	open
Dragonfire Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		580 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3516 Main St	open
Francesca's Italian Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1203 Main St	open
Husky Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	1011 Main St	open
Lakeview Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	50 Lake St	open
Michael's Penalty Box	Bar		11 Daly Rd	open
Panda Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1364 Main St	open
Phoenix Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Sushi · Japanese	1203 Main St	open
Phoenix Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	31 Main St	open
Pizza on Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1201 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1368 Main St.	open
Taking Care of Tummies	Food truck		1189 Main St	open
Twin Hills Farmstead and Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		Twin Hills Dr	open
Village Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1384 Main St, 1384 Main St	open
Wicked Slice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3466 Main St	open
Woke Breakfast and Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Breakfast · Coffee	1201 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	6	4	3	—	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	6	4	3	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	4	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	7	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	6	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	2	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	8	5	3	—	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	7	5	4	—	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	6	3	1	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	4	3	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	12	6	3	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	10	5	1	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	7	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	7	1	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	8	1	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	8	1	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	7	1	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06238. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06232	3.6 mi	3	2023
06043	5.0 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.