BMIE Market 06371

New London County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,828 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±338 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,122 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±230 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,952 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,964 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$132,045 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,059 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,172 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$499,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,861 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	54.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06371
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06371. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.9	80	40%	+31.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.8	52	35%	+18.1
Market Momentum Score	40.5	40	25%	+10.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,828	71	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	132,045	93	40%	+37.4
Households (ACS)	4,122	71	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	35%	+6.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.3	52	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	9,828	71	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	132,045	93	20%	+18.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.1	64	50%	+32.0
10-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	30%	+5.2
20-year restaurant growth	-11.8	16	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 6 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Seafood 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Breakfast 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Dessert 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A.C. Petersen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Seafood · Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	113 Shore Rd	open
Andy's Deli & Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	19 Halls Rd	open
Anley's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	284 Shore Rd	open
Ashlawn Farm Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	78 Bill Hill Rd	open
Beach Donut Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		37 Hartford Ave	open
Cafe Flo	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	96 Lyme St	open
Chestnut Grille at the Bee & Thistle Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Lyme St	open
Crepes on the Corner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	65 Hartford Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	83 Halls Rd	open
Great A & P Tea Co.	Café	Coffee	90 Halls Rd	open
Hong Kong II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	19 Halls Rd	open
Illiano's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	163 Boston Post Rd	open
Kokomo's Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar	Caribbean · American	88 Hartford Ave	open
North American Dairy Sheep	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	139 Beaver Brook Rd	open
Old Lyme Ice Cream Shoppe & Cafe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	34 Lyme St	open
Old Lyme Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	117 Shore Rd	open
Open Opportunity Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		85 Lyme St	open
Papi's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	19 Halls Rd	open
Pepperidge Farm Distribution Center	Bakery	Bakery	6 Vista Dr	open
Pitt-ch-inn	Bar		2 Seaview Rd	open
Pizzaria Da Vinci	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	19 Halls Rd	open
Salty Monkey	Restaurant (service type not stated)		83 Hartford Ave	open
Sapore Pizzeria & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	163 Boston Post Rd	open
Simply Sweet by Elana	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	28 Jericho Dr	open
Sound View Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Seafood	37 Hartford Ave	open
Stella's Restaurant and Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	163 Boston Post Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	68 Halls Road	open
Sunset Hill Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		5 Elys Ferry Rd	open
Surface Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Burgers · American	83 Hartford Ave	open
Teddy's Old Lyme Pizza Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	264 Shore Rd	open
The Chocolate Shell Shell	Dessert	Dessert	16B Lyme St	open
The Hangry Goose	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	11 Halls Rd	open
The Hideaway Restaurant and Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		19 Halls Rd	open
The Pavilion	Bar · Casual dining		85 Swan Ave	open
The Stumble Inne	Bar · Casual dining	American	90 Halls Rd	open
Vecchitto's Italian Ice	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	80 Hartford Ave	open
Yellen & Associates, Old Lyme regional office	Casual dining · Bar		15 Billow Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	90 Halls Rd Box 907	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	18	14	10	2	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	18	14	9	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	18	14	9	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2001	18	16	12	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	17	15	10	5	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	18	17	8	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	18	17	8	6	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	8	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	17	15	9	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	18	15	7	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	18	15	7	4	4	2	NAICS2007
2009	20	17	9	4	4	2	NAICS2007
2010	18	15	8	4	3	2	NAICS2007
2011	22	19	11	5	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	22	18	11	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	21	17	9	5	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	19	16	10	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	14	8	3	3	2	NAICS2012
2016	19	16	7	5	4	2	NAICS2012
2017	19	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	14	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	20	18	11	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	18	16	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	14	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06371. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06426	3.9 mi	15	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.