BMIE Market 06426

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,267 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±414 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,517 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±184 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,245 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,774 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,705 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	59.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,860 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±285 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$729,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90,116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06426
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	33.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+36.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+87.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 9–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.13) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06426. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.13, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	66	66	40%	+26.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.7	51	35%	+17.8
Market Momentum Score	75.5	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,267	54	40%	+21.4
Median household income (ACS)	103,705	83	40%	+33.3
Households (ACS)	1,517	56	20%	+11.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	35%	+20.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	45.9	11	25%	+2.7
Population (ACS)	3,267	54	20%	+10.7
Median household income (ACS)	103,705	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	30%	+17.7
20-year restaurant growth	36.4	56	20%	+11.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 6 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Seafood 3 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Dessert 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bern Inc.d/b/a Oliver's Taverne	Restaurant (service type not stated)		124 Westbrook Rd	open
Black Seal Seafood Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	15 Main St	open
Carlson's Landing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	63 Main St	open
Coastal Cooking Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 Novelty Ln	open
Drift	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	37 Pratt St	open
Essex Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	124 Westbrook Rd Ste 101	open
Essex Coffee and Tea Company	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	51 Main St	open
Hong Kong Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		125 Westbrook Rd Ste 5	open
JOY Chocolate Co	Dessert	Dessert	5 N Main St	open
Marshmallow Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 N Main St	open
Mr. Meatball	Restaurant (service type not stated)		North main street	open
Noah's at 63 Main	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	63 Main St	open
Olive Oyl's Carry Out Cuisine	Specialty food shop · Café · Quick service	Sandwiches · Coffee	6 Main St	open
Planet Hollywood Times Square	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Porky Pete's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	115 N Main St	open
Privateers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	55 Main St	open
Privateers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	55 Main St	open
Privateers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	55 Main St	open
Scotch Plains Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	American	124 Westbrook Rd	open
Siren Kitchen and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	11 Ferry St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	125 Westbrook Rd Ste 3b	open
Sweet P's	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	51 Main St	open
Sweet P's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	51 Main St	open
The Back Porch Office	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	124 Westbrook Rd	open
Truffle Shots	Dessert	Dessert	1 N Main St Unit 8	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	4	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	9	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	5	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	12	6	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	14	6	4	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06426. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06409	1.7 mi	6	2023
06442	2.0 mi	3	2019
06475	3.6 mi	53	2023
06371	3.9 mi	15	2023
06417	4.3 mi	10	2023
06439	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.