BMIE Market 06417

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,010 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±208 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,629 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,096 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$90,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,732 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,221 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±185 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$362,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,206 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06417
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+233.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	73 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06417. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.0	65	40%	+26.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.5	54	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	73.3	73	25%	+18.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,458	59	40%	+23.4
Median household income (ACS)	90,253	73	40%	+29.4
Households (ACS)	2,010	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	35%	+19.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.4	32	25%	+7.9
Population (ACS)	4,458	59	20%	+11.7
Median household income (ACS)	90,253	73	20%	+14.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	11.1	55	30%	+16.5
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 6 · Breakfast 5 · Coffee 4 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
8 Mile Meadow Bread & Pasta	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Bakery	2 Kirtland St	open
Albert's Bakery Inc	Bakery	Bakery	500 Main St Ste 20	open
Apizza Grande Deep River	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	497 Winthrop Rd	open
Calamari's Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		112 Main St	open
Chambo’s Italian Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	83 Main St	open
Deep River Ice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts	169 Main St	open
Dining Facility-Incarnation Center	Casual dining	American	253 Bushy Hill Rd	open
Dough On Main	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	159 Main St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	246 Main St	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	190 Main St	open
El Bracero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	160 Main St	open
Great Wall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	162-176 Middlesex Turnpike	open
Hally Jo's Corner Restaurant	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	165 Main St	open
High Nine Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		6 Winter Ave	open
John III Sobieski Society	Bar		10 Woodland Rd	open
Kristens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	165 main st	open
Landing and Main	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	77 Main St	open
Our Bakery And Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	439 Main St	open
Pizzeria Da Vinci Pizzeria Da Vinci Moodus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	181 Main St	open
Red House	Bar · Casual dining	American	158 Main St	open
Rusty Rail Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		439 B Main St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	83 Main St	open
The First Draft Bar	Bar		15 Lafayette Ave	open
The Ivory Restaurant & Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Mexican	1 Kirtland St	open
The Nest Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	162 Main St	open
The Riverview Room	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Breakfast	161 River St	open
The Spot	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	159 Main St	open
Whistle Stop Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	108 Main St	open
Emjays	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	83 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	9	2	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06417. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06409	2.8 mi	6	2023
06442	2.9 mi	3	2019
06412	3.1 mi	14	2023
06426	4.3 mi	15	2023
06498	4.4 mi	19	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.