BMIE Market 06412

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,825 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±337 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,628 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±168 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,994 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,923 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,191 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,195 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	54.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,549 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±247 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$442,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,213 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06412
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+75.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+133.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.47) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06412. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.47, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.5	68	40%	+27.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.2	59	35%	+20.7
Market Momentum Score	86.5	86	25%	+21.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,825	56	40%	+22.5
Median household income (ACS)	109,191	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	1,628	58	20%	+11.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	35%	+27.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	36.6	15	25%	+3.8
Population (ACS)	3,825	56	20%	+11.2
Median household income (ACS)	109,191	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	75	94	50%	+46.9
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	30%	+23.1
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 11 · Italian 4 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Casual dining 7 · Bar 4 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
23 Main Street Restaurant Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		23 Main St	open
By The Waterfall Restaurant And Bar Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		129 W Main St	open
Chester Airplane Service, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		61 Winthrop Rd	open
Dinners at the Farm	Casual dining	American	23 Main St	open
Grano Arso	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	6 Main St	open
Honeycone Craft Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	29 Main St	open
Little House Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		16 Main St	open
Marker 37	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	72 Railroad Ave	open
Moravela's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	139 Middlesex Turnpike	open
Otto OTTO	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	69 Main St	open
Pattaconk 1850 Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	33 Main St	open
Restaurant Du Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)		59 Main St	open
River Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	23 Main St	open
Rustica Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	189 Middlesex Turnpike	open
Simon's Marketplace	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	17 Main St	open
Snack Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	218 W Main St	open
Thai Riverside	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	4 Water St	open
The Anchor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	61 Railroad Ave	open
The Brushmill by the Waterfall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse · Seafood	129 W Main St	open
The Villager	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	13 Main St	open
The Villager	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	13 Main St	open
The Wheatmarket	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4 Water St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	10	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	8	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	14	12	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	12	10	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	14	10	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06412. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06438	2.9 mi	5	2023
06417	3.1 mi	10	2023
06439	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.