BMIE Market 06409
Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 701 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±209 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 321 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 693 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 362 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $107,909 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±41,595 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±809 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $387,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±87,167 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 1.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06409 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 43.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06409. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 50.5 | 51 | 40% | +20.2 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55.9 | 56 | 35% | +19.6 |
| Market Momentum Score | 71.9 | 72 | 25% | +18.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 701 | 26 | 40% | +10.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 107,909 | 86 | 40% | +34.2 |
| Households (ACS) | 321 | 29 | 20% | +5.8 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 100 | 92 | 35% | +32.2 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 85.6 | 5 | 25% | +1.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 701 | 26 | 20% | +5.3 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 107,909 | 86 | 20% | +17.1 |
Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 20 | 77 | 50% | +38.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 100 | 92 | 30% | +27.6 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 0 | 28 | 20% | +5.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (13)
By cuisine
Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · American 1 · Breakfast 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Jax Saloon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 78 Main St | open |
| Bun On The Run | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · Breakfast | 24 Main St | open |
| Centerbrook Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 10 Westbrook Rd | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee | 23 Main St | open |
| Gabrielle's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 78 Main St | open |
| Howard's Bread | Bakery | Bakery | 90 Main St Ste 109 Bldg 3 | open |
| Pizza Pub Essex | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining | Pizza | 15 Main St | open |
| Savour Cafe and Bakery | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 90 Main St | open |
| Scoops | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 55 Main St | open |
| Surfridge Brewing Co | Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar | 6 Main St | open | |
| Sweet Em's Chocolate Cafe | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Dessert | 33 Main St | open |
| The Essex | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 30 Main St | open | |
| The Essex Public Market & Food Hall | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 30 Main St, Rear Entrance | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 2 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 6 | 6 | 3 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 6 | 6 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 7 | 7 | 4 | — | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 6 | 6 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 6 | 6 | — | — | — | — | NAICS2022 |