BMIE Market 06378

New London County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,555 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±568 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,708 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,399 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,040 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$135,714 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,839 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	58.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±503 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$593,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±56,562 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06378
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	20.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+62.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 12–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06378. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.6	76	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.2	60	35%	+21.1
Market Momentum Score	53.7	54	25%	+13.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,555	62	40%	+24.9
Median household income (ACS)	135,714	94	40%	+37.7
Households (ACS)	2,708	66	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	35%	+21.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.4	30	25%	+7.4
Population (ACS)	5,555	62	20%	+12.4
Median household income (ACS)	135,714	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	18.2	62	30%	+18.5
20-year restaurant growth	62.5	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (38)

By cuisine

Coffee 9 · Seafood 9 · American 6 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 25 · Café 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Bar 5 · Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beer'd Brewing Co. - The Mill	Brewery / taproom · Bar		22 Bayview Ave	open
Boro Bodega and Scoopery	Dessert · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	109 Water St	open
Breakwater	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	66 Water St	open
Breakwater Stonington Harbor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	Stonington Connecticut, 870 Pequot Trl	open
Cove Fish Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	20 Old Stonington Rd	open
CT Wine Trail	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Dock 9	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		22 Bayview Ave	open
Dog Watch Bbq Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 Old Stonington Rd	open
Dog Watch Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	194 Water St	open
Go Fish Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	29 Old Stonington Rd	open
Indulge Coffee and Sandwich Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	17 High St	open
Jonathon Edwards Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian		open
Llc Two, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		201 N Main St	open
Macondo	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	530 Stonington Rd	open
Meryl + Masa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Sandwiches	22 Bayview Ave #75	open
Meryl Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	22 Bayview Ave	open
Milagro, Llc	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	142 Water St	open
Noah's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	113 Water St	open
On The Marsh Food Truck Park	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Pizza	779 Stonington Rd	open
Rum Tropic Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		22 Bayview Ave Ste 47	open
Saltwater Farm Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		349 Elm St	open
Sea Well Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1 High St	open
Skippers Dock	Restaurant (service type not stated)		66 Water St	open
Stonington Borough CT	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	25 Orchard St	open
Stonington Fish & Lobster	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	70 Water St	open
Stonington Harbor Yacht Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 Stonington Cmns	open
Stonington Harbor Yacht Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	32 Water St	open
Stonington Pizza Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Seafood · Italian	530 Stonington Rd	open
Stonington Seafood Harvesters Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4 High St	open
Stonington Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		523 Taugwonk Rd	open
The Caramel Apple Lady	Dessert	Dessert	22 Bayview Ave	open
the velvet vine	Casual dining		22 Bayview Ave #14	open
Water Street Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	143 Water St	open
Whitecrest Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	22 Bayview Ave	open
Whitehall Mansion	Coffee shop	Coffee	48 Watch Hill Ave	open
Yellow House Express	Coffee shop	Coffee · Chinese	862 Stonington Westerly Rd	open
Zack's Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	201 N Main St	open
Zest Zest	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	22 Bayview Ave #1A	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	6	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	9	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	10	8	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	9	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	10	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	11	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	9	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	13	9	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06378. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06379	3.2 mi	16	2023
06355	3.5 mi	71	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.