BMIE Market 06413

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,377 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,509 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±273 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,235 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,049 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$124,824 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,697 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,395 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±105 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$380,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,272 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06413
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+4.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 23–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06413. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.8	82	40%	+32.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.5	58	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	38.8	39	25%	+9.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,377	75	40%	+30.0
Median household income (ACS)	124,824	92	40%	+36.7
Households (ACS)	5,509	76	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.5	48	25%	+11.9
Population (ACS)	13,377	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	124,824	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	4.8	37	20%	+7.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (63)

By cuisine

American 12 · Dessert 9 · Coffee 8 · Asian 6 · Pizza 6 · Seafood 6 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Chinese 4 · Italian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Japanese 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Dessert 10 · Quick service 10 · Bar 7 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 5 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
AQUA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	34 Riverside Dr	open
Ba Sing Se	Bar · Casual dining	American		open
Beach Donut Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	344 E Main St	open
Bella Maria Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	153 Glenwood Rd	open
Berry Yummy CT	Dessert	Dessert	20 Killingworth Turnpike	open
Bristol Cafe	Café	Coffee	20-A Killingworth Turnpike	open
Cafè Nola	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Sandwiches · Bakery	10 W Main St	open
Cafe Routier	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	80 Liberty St	open
Candy Works	Dessert	Dessert	20 Killingworth Tpke	open
Carvel Express Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	20-A Killingworth Turnpike	open
Ceniccola's Italian Deli & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Pizza · American	36 Killingworth Tpke	open
Chamard Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		115 Cow Hill Rd	open
Chester's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	10 W Main St	open
Chips' Pub III	Bar · Casual dining	American	24 W Main St B	open
Clinton Harbor Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	37 Riverside Dr	open
Clinton Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 E Main St	open
Coffee Break	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	27 E Main St	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7 Glenwood Rd	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Dessert	7 Glenwood Road	open
Denovelli's By The Shore	Restaurant (service type not stated)		192 E Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	266 East Main Street	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	215 E Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	7 Glenwood Rd	open
Frank Andrews Mobile Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	20 Killingworth Tpke	open
Friends of Malone's Sandwich and Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	350 E Main St # A	open
Fuzziwigs Candy Factory	Quick service		20 Killingworth Tpke	open
Golden China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	274 E Main St	open
Golden China Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	274 E Main St	open
Grand Apizza Shoreline Grand Apizza Madison	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	9 E Main St	open
Great Wall Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	102 W Main St	open
Green Leaf	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Middle Eastern	344 E Main St	open
Hanami Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	114 E Main St	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		7 Glenwood Rd Unit C	open
Keldrew Llc Dock's Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		350 E Main St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	56 West Main Street	open
Land Of Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	350 E Main St	open
Lindt Chocolate Shop Lindt	Dessert	Dessert	20-A Killingworth Turnpike	open
Liv's Dockside Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	77 Cedar Island Ave	open
Lobster Landing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	152 Commerce St	open
Malone's Sandwich and Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	350 E Main St	open
Marty's Drive In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	350 E Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	108 W Main St	open
Nataz Restaurant Nataz Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	1 W Main St	open
Palmieri's NY Style	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	51 W Main St	open
Pica Chica Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	68 W Main St	open
Saldamarco's	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	86 E Main St	open
Scottish Dave's Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	24 E Main St	open
Shanks Waterfront Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	131-c Grove St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	11 Killingworth Turnpike	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	98 West Main St	open
Sunday’s Pie Truck	Food truck · Bakery	Bakery	327 E Main St	open
Taste of China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	233 E Main St	open
Tea & Tarot: Tea Room & Boutique	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	130 E Main St	open
Teleeo	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18 Nod Rd Unit 4	open
The Drifting Galley	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		70 Riverside Dr	open
The Log Cabin Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	232 E Main St	open
The Salt Leaf	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	23 W Main St	open
Westbrook Lobster Restaurant and Bar Westbrook Lobster-Wallingford	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	346 E Main St	open
Westbrook Seafood Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		346 E Main St	open
Wings & Kabobs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	20 Killingworth Tpke	open
Yellow Eliot	Bar · Casual dining		73 Groveway	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	23 Killingworth Turnpike	open
Aunt Shirley's Pizza & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	68 W Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	17	16	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	20	19	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	20	19	10	8	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	18	18	9	8	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	20	19	9	7	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	17	8	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	24	22	9	8	5	—	NAICS1997
2003	22	21	8	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	26	25	11	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2005	25	24	9	11	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	24	23	9	10	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	26	25	12	9	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	21	10	9	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	22	20	9	9	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	23	21	10	9	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	26	23	12	8	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	28	25	12	10	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	23	22	11	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	22	21	12	6	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	23	22	12	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	23	22	12	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	22	21	12	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	22	14	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	24	12	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	28	27	13	10	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	31	30	16	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	26	16	7	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	22	13	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06413. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06498	2.7 mi	19	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.