BMIE Market 06419

Middlesex County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,240 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,516 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±200 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,525 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,598 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$140,655 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$446,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55,937 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06419
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+166.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	43 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06419. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.4	76	40%	+30.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.7	73	35%	+25.5
Market Momentum Score	42.7	43	25%	+10.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,240	64	40%	+25.6
Median household income (ACS)	140,655	95	40%	+38.0
Households (ACS)	2,516	64	20%	+12.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.8	61	25%	+15.3
Population (ACS)	6,240	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	140,655	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

Bakery 4 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 6 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Andie’s Cookies Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	176 Route 81 Bldg 5	open
Aristokraft Kitchen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	187 CT-81	open
BarrelHouse	Bar		176 CT-81 Building 1	open
Baskin-Robbins Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	177 Route 81	open
Cafe Laurel	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	176 Clinton Rd Building 5	open
Chow Food & Beverage	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		36 Route 81	open
Copper Skillet Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	184 Clinton St	open
Cozy Corner Bake Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		183 Rte 81	open
Crossroads	Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	250 Higganum Rd	open
Deluca's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	206 Route 80	open
Hot Monkey Nuts	Dessert	Dessert	184 CT-81	open
June's Outback Pub	Bar		184 Route 81	open
Killingworth newgreatwall	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Asian	184 Route 81	open
La Foresta Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	163 CT-81	open
New Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	184 CT-81	open
Pizzeria Da Vinci	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	184 Route 81	open
Shipwreck Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		256 CT-81	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	184 Route 81	open
The Bread Girl	Bakery	Bakery	627 CT-148	open
The Cooking Company	Bakery	Bakery	183 Route 81	open
The Dog House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	157 Route 81	open
The Main Street Cookery Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		187 Route 81	open
The Sweet Baker, LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	70 Ironworks Rd	open
Tusk Bar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	184 CT-81	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	6	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	7	5	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	9	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06419. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06443	3.2 mi	39	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.