BMIE Market 06786

Litchfield County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,768 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±384 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,027 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,867 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,169 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$87,306 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,270 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±136 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$265,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,894 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06786
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+180.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06786. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.2	60	35%	+21.1
Market Momentum Score	75.8	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,768	70	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	87,306	71	40%	+28.2
Households (ACS)	4,027	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	35%	+18.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.3	55	25%	+13.8
Population (ACS)	9,768	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	87,306	71	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	30%	+15.6
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Italian 5 · Pizza 5 · American 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Coffee 3 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Asian 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Legion Post 20	Bar		245 Main St	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	159 Main St	open
CurbSide Grills	Quick service · Food truck	American	141 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	151 Main St	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	311 Main St	open
Eagles Nest Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	163 Main St	open
Golden City Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	311 S Main St	open
Golden City Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		311 Main St	open
Hilltop Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	446 Main St	open
Hometown Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	124 Main St	open
Main Street Deli and Grocery	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	446 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	321 Main St	open
Pasquale's Deli & Ristorante	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	209 Main St	open
Pasquales Deli	Other	Sandwiches	8 South Main St	open
Pasta Heaven	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	241 Main St	open
Salsa's 5 Pizza & Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Mexican · Italian	446 Main St	open
Spiga Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	311 Main St	open
Sunrise Deli and Caterers	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	92 Main St	open
Terryville Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	211 Main St	open
The Local Scoop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	209 Main St	open
Via Al Paraiso 4	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Latin American (other) · Coffee	311 Main St	open
Willie's Burgers Terryville CT	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	209 Main St	open
Chute Gates Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	372 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	9	5	3	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	5	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	5	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06786. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06782	2.4 mi	1	2003
06787	3.5 mi	20	2023
06010	4.0 mi	91	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.