BMIE Market 06903

Fairfield County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,010 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±958 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,882 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±334 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,499 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,275 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$204,028 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,001 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$911,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,875 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	17.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06903
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06903. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.6	85	40%	+33.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.8	69	35%	+24.1
Market Momentum Score	26.1	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,010	76	40%	+30.2
Median household income (ACS)	204,028	99	40%	+39.6
Households (ACS)	4,882	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.4	87	25%	+21.7
Population (ACS)	14,010	76	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	204,028	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

American 4 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bummerville Flats	Bar		247 Sawmill Rd	open
Carvel Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1060 Long Ridge Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1051 Long Ridge Rd	open
El Torito Deli El Torito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1391 High Ridge Rd	open
Farmhouse at the Crossroads	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2635 Long Ridge Rd	open
Fed Eatery Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1051 Long Ridge Rd	open
Frangos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1391 High Ridge Rd	open
Holts Ice Pond	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Lakeside Diner	Casual dining	American	1050 Long Ridge Rd	open
Lenny's Seafood & Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · Italian	1297 Long Ridge Rd	open
Madonia Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1297 Long Ridge Rd	open
Melt Mobile	Food truck			open
Mish Mosh	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	1034 Long Ridge Rd	open
Mystique Gentlemen's Club	Bar		1913 High Ridge Rd	open
Spiral's Mac & Cheese Stamford	Catering	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2121 Long Ridge Rd	open
Uncle's Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1391 High Ridge Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	4	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	12	5	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	4	5	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06903. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06907	3.6 mi	25	2023
06905	3.6 mi	62	2023
06840	4.1 mi	52	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.