BMIE Market 07438

Morris County, New Jersey · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,160 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±788 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,391 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±387 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,559 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,386 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,271 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,388 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,387 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$436,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,220 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	30.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 07438
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+63.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 18–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 07438. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Jersey and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 567, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.0	80	40%	+32.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.6	63	35%	+21.9
Market Momentum Score	26.2	26	25%	+6.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,160	72	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	123,271	91	40%	+36.5
Households (ACS)	4,391	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5.9	50	35%	+17.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.1	49	25%	+12.2
Population (ACS)	11,160	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	123,271	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	5.9	50	30%	+15.1
20-year restaurant growth	-14.3	15	20%	+3.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

Italian 7 · American 5 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 7 · Quick service 6 · Specialty food shop 5 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 4 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Chocolate Lab	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	27 Highland Rd	open
AJ's Country Cone	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5711 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Asani, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5129 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Betsy Ross Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	5708 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Bowling green beer Garden	Bar	American		open
Convenience America	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches		open
Deli Works	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	5726 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Ding Dong Deli Oak Ridge	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	5523 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert		open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	5748 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Evergreen Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	5716 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Fairy Tale Forest	Restaurant (service type not stated)		140 Oak Ridge Rd	open
Frank's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5762 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Jimmy Geez North	Bar · Casual dining		3219 Paterson Hamburg Turnpike	open
Kambo Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5561 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Lox Stocked and Bageled	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	5716 Berkshire Valley Rd #3	open
Luc's Fajita Hut	Food truck		5756 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Marios Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	5531 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	5734 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Milton Inn	Casual dining · Bar		3 Ridge Rd	open
Milton Pines Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		53 School House Rd	open
Paradise Restaurant & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	3055 NJ-23	open
Pintos Pizza & Catering	Catering	Pizza · Italian	5629 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Pizza Kings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3043 NJ-23	open
Portofino's Ristorante Portofino's Familly Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5129 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Sneaky Pete's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		54 Ridge Rd	open
Sunwoo Trade Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3055 State Rt 23	open
The Daily Planet	Bar		526 Roosevelt Ave	open
The Mark: Lakeside Dining American Cuisine Sonny's BBQ - Gonzales	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian · European	11 Moquis Trl	open
TJ's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5716 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Tuscany Brewhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3055 State Rt 23	open
Ultimate Pizza Of Oak Ridge Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5716 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Valley Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	5604 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Working Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	5561 Berkshire Valley Rd	open
Evergreen Restaurant Of Oak Ridge Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5716 Berkshire Valley Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	17	14	8	3	3	2	NAICS1997
1999	16	14	8	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2000	19	16	10	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2001	19	16	9	4	3	2	NAICS1997
2002	24	20	11	6	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	24	21	13	6	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	29	25	16	5	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	30	25	16	6	3	3	NAICS2002
2006	29	23	12	8	3	4	NAICS2002
2007	25	20	11	5	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	23	18	11	5	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	23	19	15	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	24	20	15	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	22	18	12	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	19	17	11	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	22	17	9	4	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	22	18	9	4	5	1	NAICS2012
2015	25	21	11	4	6	1	NAICS2012
2016	25	21	12	6	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	21	18	11	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	21	13	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	19	11	4	4	3	NAICS2017
2020	24	21	13	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	21	11	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	24	21	10	8	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	18	8	7	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 07438. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
07435	4.2 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.