BMIE Market 07821

Sussex County, New Jersey · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,662 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±786 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,553 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,193 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,731 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$141,860 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,639 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,607 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±116 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$431,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,631 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 07821
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-30.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.39) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	82 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 07821. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.39, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Jersey and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 567, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80	80	40%	+32.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.0	85	35%	+29.7
Market Momentum Score	81.8	82	25%	+20.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,662	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	141,860	95	40%	+38.0
Households (ACS)	3,553	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.3	75	25%	+18.7
Population (ACS)	9,662	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	141,860	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (24)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · American 4 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Café 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 2 · Catering 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Andover Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	193 Main St	open
Cafe Pierrot	Bakery · Café	Bakery · French · Coffee	212 Main St	open
Camisa Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	129 Decker Pond Rd	open
Carlos Pizza & Catering	Catering · Delivery-focused	Pizza	129 Decker Pond Rd	open
Country Deli and Bagel	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	129 Decker Pond Rd	open
Cranberry Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	274 US-206	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	165 Main St	open
Firehouse Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	152 Main St	open
Frank's Pizzeria & Catering 07821	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	126 Decker Pond Rd	open
Grist Mill Cafe	Café	Coffee	4a Lenape Road	open
IL Gusto Pizzeria & Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	152 Main St	open
Jimmy's Italian Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	136 Main St	open
Jj8789 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		289 Pequest Rd	open
Lake House Cafe - Andover	Café	Coffee	5 Lenape Rd	open
Lake Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	300 Lakeside Blvd	open
Lola's Waterfront Cocina Latina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Latin American (other)	300 Lakeside Ave	open
Mosaico Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		2 Tamarack Rd	open
Old Crow’s Coffeehouse	Café	Coffee	5 Lenape Rd	open
Pub 517	Bar		50 Stuyvesant Rd	open
Retal Ice Cream Truck	Dessert · Food truck · Catering	Ice cream / frozen desserts	203 Main St	open
Stonewood Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	239 US-206	open
The Village White House	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	122 Main St	open
Tranquility Store	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	97 Kennedy Rd	open
Vinny & Son Pizza (Andover)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	184 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	9	6	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	5	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	4	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	5	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	5	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	7	2	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	8	5	—	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	5	2	—	1	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	7	4	1	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 07821. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
07820	3.5 mi	4	2018
07874	3.5 mi	17	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.