BMIE Market 07853

Morris County, New Jersey · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,339 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±686 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,249 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±299 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,325 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,460 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$175,792 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,066 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,677 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±168 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$605,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,865 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 07853
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+21.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+112.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+88.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+240.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 07853. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Jersey and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 567, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.1	83	40%	+33.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.7	82	35%	+28.6
Market Momentum Score	83.3	83	25%	+20.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,339	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	175,792	98	40%	+39.2
Households (ACS)	4,249	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	112.5	94	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.8	57	25%	+14.3
Population (ACS)	12,339	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	175,792	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	21.4	78	50%	+39.2
10-year restaurant growth	112.5	94	30%	+28.3
20-year restaurant growth	88.9	79	20%	+15.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 5 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 5 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Quick service 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amore Dolcetti	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 E Mill Rd	open
Andrea's Dining Room	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1 W Mill Rd	open
Cake Fiction	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	11 E Mill Rd	open
Chesapeake Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Chesapeake Tavern	Bar	American · Seafood	1 W Mill Rd	open
Chilton Mill Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		59 E Mill Rd	open
Cornerstone Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	71 E Mill Rd	open
Country Pie Factory	Dessert	Dessert	67 E Mill Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Quick service · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	62 E Mill Rd	open
FIG	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	71 E Mill Rd	open
In & Out Food Mart	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	43 E Mill Rd	open
JC Lounge	Bar			open
La Rienda Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Spanish / tapas · Mexican	5 W Mill Rd	open
Long Valley Bagel	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	6 W Mill Rd	open
Long Valley Pub and Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		1 Fairmount Rd	open
McMeen Smoke House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · BBQ · American	90 Kings Hwy	open
Mustafa's Turkish and Mediterranean cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	67 E Mill Rd	open
OMG Burger & Brew	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	141 Schooleys Mountain Rd	open
Pezzo Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	62 E Mill Rd	open
Pulled Fork BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	38 E Mill Rd	open
Red Lantern Sushi and Asian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	Long Valley, 9 W Mill Rd	open
The Chocolate Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	62 E Mill Rd	open
The Coffee Potter	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	24 Schooleys Mountain Rd	open
Vale Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · Sandwiches	67 E Mill Rd	open
Valley Restaurant and Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	59 E Mill Rd #208	open
Long Valley Inn Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Fairmount Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	5	—	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	5	—	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	8	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	5	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	9	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	7	5	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	5	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	11	6	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	13	8	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	14	6	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	13	6	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	14	7	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	16	8	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	17	10	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	14	9	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	10	—	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	17	11	—	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 07853. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
07870	2.3 mi	1	2016
07830	4.7 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.