BMIE Market 07921

Somerset County, New Jersey · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,942 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,621 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,141 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,104 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,573 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,236 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$433,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,860 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 07921
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-26.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+120.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 07921. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Jersey and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 567, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.4	77	40%	+31.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49.2	49	35%	+17.2
Market Momentum Score	21.1	21	25%	+5.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,700	67	40%	+26.8
Median household income (ACS)	123,104	91	40%	+36.5
Households (ACS)	3,942	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-26.7	11	35%	+3.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.3	55	25%	+13.8
Population (ACS)	7,700	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	123,104	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	-26.7	11	30%	+3.2
20-year restaurant growth	10	40	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

Italian 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Pizza 6 · American 5 · Japanese 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Sushi 2 · Asian 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 8 · Specialty food shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Other 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annie's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	2095 Burnt Mills Rd	open
Bedminster Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2480 Lamington Rd	open
Bubble's Kitty Land Love Center	Bar		92 Wentworth Rd	open
Burger King	Quick service		2045 Burnt Mills Rd	open
Burnt Mills Cider	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3540 US-206	open
Cafe Carriage House	Other	Sandwiches	302 Route 202/206 N	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	428B Route 202-206	open
Country Picnic	Other	Sandwiches	300 Main St	open
Delicious Heights	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	285 US-202/206	open
Delicious Heights	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	285 Main St	open
Desiderio's Market & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	300 Main St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1525 Route 206 Shell Gas Station	open
Golden Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	400 US Highway 206	open
KIKU Hibachi & Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2085 Burnt Mills Rd	open
La Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	318 Us-202	open
Lil Pickles Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	318 US-202	open
Luna Rossa Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	318 US-202	open
Panatieri's Pizza & Pasta Panatieri's Pizza & Pasta - Flemington	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	75 Washington Valley Rd	open
Pancheros Mexican Grill Pancheros Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	402 US-206	open
Patricio Mateo Chef Dolce Bene	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1938 Martinsville	open
Pizza Brothers Bedminster Pizza Brothers of Hillsborough	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	462 Main St	open
Rocco's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	466 US-202 #206	open
Sakana Modern Japanese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	440 U.S. 202	open
Slen'Da'Rella	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2475 Lamington Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	432 Us Highway 202/206 Village At Bedminster	open
Steck's North Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	75 Washington Valley Rd	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	460 US Highway 202 206	open
The Pluckemin Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10 Pluckemin Way	open
Trattoria Mediterranea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mediterranean · European	2472 Lamington Rd	open
twofiftytwo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	252 Somerville Rd	open
Vz Bedminster Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		180 Washington Valley Rd	open
Yamataro Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	440 US Hwy 206 N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	10	3	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	14	4	6	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	14	4	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	19	15	5	6	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	19	15	6	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	19	15	6	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	21	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	14	7	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	8	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	13	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	12	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 07921. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
08858	3.6 mi	3	2023
07931	3.7 mi	3	2018
07977	4.1 mi	3	2023
08876	4.6 mi	83	2023
07979	4.7 mi	1	1999

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.