BMIE Market 10280

New York County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,933 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,579 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,237 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,853 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,962 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$206,299 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±72,721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,501 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$976,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±580,898 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	0.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10280
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-38.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.56) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10280. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.56, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	81.6	82	40%	+32.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.8	83	35%	+29.0
Market Momentum Score	40.7	41	25%	+10.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,933	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	206,299	99	40%	+39.6
Households (ACS)	4,237	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	35%	+30.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.0	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	8,933	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	206,299	99	20%	+19.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	60	86	30%	+25.8
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Chinese 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Battery Park Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	21 S End Ave	open
Battery Place Market Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		77 Battery Pl	open
Benvenuti Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	235 S End Ave	open
Black Hound Bar & Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		301 S End Ave	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	325 S End Ave	open
Earthbar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	225 Liberty Street	open
Halal Food	Food truck		300 Albany St	open
Honorable William Wall	Bar		385 S End Ave	open
Kyle's Whiskey Bar and Cowboy Saloon	Bar		355 S End Ave	open
La Boucherie	Specialty food shop	American		open
Le Pain Quotidien Le Pain Quotidien	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	395 S End Ave	open
Liberty View Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southeast Asian (other) · Chinese	21 S End Ave	open
Lox Cafe	Café	Halal / kosher · German / Eastern European · Coffee	36 Battery Pl	open
Mah Ze Dahr Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	Brookfield Place, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281	open
Merchants River House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Hudson River Esplanade	open
Mezze on the River	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Seafood	375 S End Ave	open
Miramar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	21 S End Ave	open
Only U Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		21 S End Ave Frnt 3	open
Parma South End Food Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		303 S End Ave	open
Picasso Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	303 S End Ave	open
Pick A Bagel	Bakery	Bakery	311 S End Ave	open
Samantha's Fine Foods	Other	Sandwiches	235 S End Ave	open
Southwest NY Treadwell Park	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	301 S End Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10280. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10006	0.2 mi	37	2023
10271	0.3 mi	3	2022
10279	0.5 mi	2	2016
10282	0.5 mi	12	2023
10005	0.5 mi	50	2023
10007	0.5 mi	105	2023
10038	0.7 mi	171	2023
10278	0.8 mi	1	2012
10013	0.9 mi	444	2023
07311	1.1 mi	7	2023
10004	1.4 mi	95	2023
10012	1.5 mi	354	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.